Is Now The Time To Buy Oil?

Stock exchanges are not alone in seeing prices pull back lately. In at least one case, however, that is actually a good thing.

Drivers both state-side and abroad have no doubt felt the pain at the pump subsiding this fall. In the United States, many gas stations are now hawking unleaded for under $3.00 a gallon -- a welcome sight in my eyes, at least. Those lower prices have come at a cost to some portfolios, however.

Oil prices have been steadily declining since making highs in June, falling from north of $104 to around $81 at the time this article was written. Considering that nearly every industry is affected by oil in some way, this means there's a good chance some of your holdings have fallen in tandem.

[Related -Bullish Conviction Returns, But Market Likely To Consolidate Its V-bottom]

Naturally, oil explorers, producers, and those along the supply chain have been hit the hardest. Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), the world's largest oil company by revenue, has fallen 11% since July. In contrast, the S&P 500 is only down 2.6% in the same time period.

The big question now: have prices reached a bottom, and is it time to go long big oil?

A recent pop in energy stock prices across the board leads me to believe that the answers may be: Yes. Analysts and CEOs are coming out publicly in support of many oil companies during this earnings season, showing that a buying opportunity may be presenting itself in this slump.

This perceived value is making itself known predominantly in beat-down price-to-earnings ratios. Many drillers, service providers and the like are trading at single-digit P/E multiples, garnering the attention of both fund managers and research shops alike.

[Related -The Best Dividend Stocks In The World]

So how can we profit from a potential upswing?

Don't complicate things by trying to pick individual names or playing with futures. I suggest going with an ETF that is heavy on the super majors. Why is that? Simple: the larger oil companies are well-capitalized and have long histories of weathering these cycles.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLE) meets that requirement beautifully and also stands out as the largest energy ETF.

XLE peaked in June at $101.52, only to fall to $77.51 just four months later. Since that low, however, the ETF bounced up to $86 in just one week of heavy buying.

Investors are putting their money where their mouths are, with inflows into XLE amounting to $1.1 billion in October so far. In addition, research arms of firms like Bank of America and Jefferies have hit the newswires this past week, reiterating buy ratings in many of the companies that make up XLE.

Ideally, I'd like to see XLE head south towards that $77.51 low again, only to receive more buying and bounce again. This would show that real support exists at that level. I can't say if oil prices are done stretching just yet, so I see this as a safer entry method.

Risks to Consider: Timing oil markets is difficult -- the commodity is driven by seemingly every factor under the sun. Fundamentals, geopolitics, international regulatory bodies and a slew of other variables all weigh into the price. Waiting to see if XLE heads lower may mean you may miss the trade entirely. But if XLE reaches its recent bottom again and falls through, then investors could be looking at some nasty losses before it levels out again.

Action To Take --> With oil prices now at two-year lows, many analysts and investors are focusing more attention on the commodity. XLE's recent bounce has me looking for a good entry if buying support holds. In the meantime, I'll be enjoying a heavier wallet and a fuller gas tank.

India looks for love on Tinder

NEW DELHI (CNNMoney) A popular dating app is attracting legions of young, urban Indians who are happy to use their smartphones in a search for love, even if it means casting aside traditional values.

The app is Tinder, which despite having arrived only one year ago, is now growing its user base in India by 1% per day. The app matches users by location and then allows them to connect if both parties are interested -- and it's a huge hit in cities like New Delhi and Mumbai.

"At first I thought it was a superficial, creepy kind of concept, but what it does is broaden your options," said Shilpi Roy, a young Delhi resident who has added Tinder to her dating routine.

But is this app -- which has a reputation for facilitating more hookups than relationships -- compatible with Indian culture?

In India, 90% of marriages are arranged, and dating around or having multiple partners is frowned upon. Newspaper advertisements and matrimonial websites here still promise a "homely, God-fearing and virtuous wife."

  Modi in U.S. to promote 'Make in India'

Dakshi Kushwaha, a Tinder user and friend of Roy's, insists that matchmaking on Tinder isn't all that different that traditional methods -- which often includes a heavy dose of parental input.

"Even now when you hear of people getting into arranged marriage set up, they exchange numbers, they get talking," she said. "That's exactly what you do on Tinder. It's just now you swipe profiles right and left."

Between them, Roy and Kushwaha have met a handful of men on Tinder, and they think it's the best way to find dates. They like how it simplifies potential suitors to two main criteria: looks and physical distance.

Kushwaha said she is using the app to keep her options open, even as her parents work to set up an arranged marriage.

Chetan Bhaghat, a novelist and keen cultural observer, said the app appeals to young Indians who have grown adept at behaving one way in front of their parents, and another way when they're with friends or alone.

"Young Indians want to date or have one-night stands, but at the same time they don't want to upset their parents or the societal fabric they come from," he said. "They're okay with having an arranged marriage, b! ut ... they want to fulfill their lust and desires for which they find Tinder very useful."

Despite the cultural complications, Tinder's rising popularity in India might be due to its ability to effectively match users -- a feature with universal appeal.

Even in the cloistered world of Delhi high society—where everyone knows everyone -- the app is making inroads, said Chirag Aga, 27, who met his current girlfriend through the app.

"Once you reach your late twenties or early thirties in Delhi, your circle of friends is set, and making new friends is a big task," he said. "Tinder is a great enabler."

Harley-Davidson Owners Recall When Their Bikes Didn't Need So Many Repairs

Harley-Davidson had been in high gear until recalls started causing slippage. 

Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG  ) really doesn't need this massive motorcycle recall right now.

The bike maker has bounced back strongly from the collapse in sales it suffered during the recession. Though the 260,000 units it shipped last year is not anywhere near the heights it hit in 2006, when it shipped 350,000 units, it still marked a healthy recovery, and its recent unveiling of the 2015 lineup set the stage for another bang-up year.

So, word that Harley is recalling its entire lineup of 2014 touring bikes, as well as its trikes and custom-designed bikes, could cause that surge to stall.

A case of road rash
The issue itself seems relatively minor, all things considered. The clutch can develop a tear that would allow the bike to creep forward when the rider intended to be at a stop, which could cause it to crash, most likely by toppling over. Harley has reported 19 such accidents, and though there have been three injuries associated with it, they've all been minor. The fix is apparently simple as well, requiring the clutch assembly to be rebuilt, which takes less than an hour.

Just because it's not a fatal flaw doesn't mean it's not a problem. Source: Flickr.

Really, the problem lies with the fact that Harley recalled a smaller number of motorcycles last year with the same part. While it only affected 29,000 bikes then, it was a far more serious issue, and a "Do not ride" letter was sent to owners along with a "Do not deliver" letter to dealers until the problem was fixed. Why can't Harley get its clutches right?

Objects are closer than they appear
Competition is heating up this year in ways Harley hasn't experienced in a while. Polaris Industries (NYSE: PII  ) is out with a number of new models that seek to take on Harley head-to-head, and the resurrection of its Indian nameplate is turning riders' attention in a way that its Victory bikes couldn't.

Last quarter, Polaris reported that sales in its motorcycle division doubled year over year to $103.7 million, driven largely by new Indian sales, demand for which was up 50%, and outside North America, where Polaris said it was gaining market share, sales almost doubled as well.

Now, those results are about what Harley makes in a week. Its own second-quarter motorcycle sales were up 16% as revenues hit $1.48 billion, so we're talking orders of magnitude larger than what Polaris is doing.

But sales, while still growing, are growing at a slower rate than they have been. Harley can't afford to have an image of shoddy workmanship since it took a long time for the bike maker to shake off that perception following its ownership by AMF. Back then, there was a running joke that you had to buy two Harleys: one to ride and one for parts.

It was the sale of the company in 1981 that marked the start of its comeback, and it's been a heck of a ride since then. It can't afford to go back.

Not the mother of all recalls
The recall covers Harley's 2014 Touring, CVO Touring, CVO Softail, and Trike motorcycles. It's also recalling about 1,400 of its 500 and 750 Street bikes from the 2015 model year for a possible fuel tank leak.

Earlier this summer, it recalled more than 60,000 2014 Touring and CVO Touring motorcycles because of a problem with the anti-lock braking system that caused the front wheels to lock up without warning. In August, it recalled over 4,500 bikes for a faulty ignition switch. 

This year's recalls still pale in comparison to the massive 300,000 bike recall issued in 2011, but that was simply a rear brake light problem.

In its annual report filed with the SEC in February, Harley said that over the last three years, it had initiated 16 voluntary recalls that cost it some $22 million, almost half of which naturally came in 2011. While the cost decreased markedly to $4 million by the end of 2013, it jumped to almost $7 million in the second quarter, and with the latest recall, we're going to see those numbers rise once more.

For a company reporting $308 million in quarterly net income, even if the liability expenses doubled, it's still a pretty insignificant amount, but it's the credibility issue that becomes more of the problem. Polaris said its North American retail sales fell in the mid-single digits for its Victory brand primarily because of a recall related to a faulty crankcase that could cause it to seize.

Harley-Davidson has been allowing competitors to play catch-up. Source: Flickr user Matthias Schack.

Up on blocks
Quality control issues are bedeviling the auto industry, and though manufacturers are on target to sell more cars this year than ever, recalls are plaguing them, and General Motors alone has recalled nearly 29 million vehicles. At one point, it seemed the carmaker was issuing recalls every week.

If Harley-Davidson wants to avoid having the same kind of reputation for shoddy workmanship that seems to shadow some automakers (and raises the ghost of Harley's past), it would do well to get a tighter grip on this issue and instill once again the pride of craftsmanship that should be the bike maker's hallmark.

You can't afford to miss this
"Made in China" -- an all too familiar phrase. But not for much longer: There's a radical new technology out there, one that's already being employed by the U.S. Air Force, BMW and even Nike. Respected publications like The Economist have compared this disruptive invention to the steam engine and the printing press; Business Insider calls it "the next trillion-dollar industry." Watch The Motley Fool's shocking video presentation to learn about the next great wave of technological innovation, one that will bring an end to "Made in China" for good. Click here!

Ebola fears hurt airlines

Concerns about Ebola getting worse has investors worried about airline stocks. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Ebola is on the move, and that doesn't bode well for transportation companies such as airlines.

Shares of the major carriers fell between 2% to 4% Wednesday after the Centers for Disease Control revealed late Tuesday that the first case of the virus has been confirmed in the United States.

The selling was broad based. JetBlue (JBLU)and Southwest (LUV) were down even though neither company has a big presence overseas.

Of the U.S. airlines, United Continental (UAL) probably has the most exposure to Africa through its Star Alliance, according to Joe DeNardi, an airlines stock analyst at Stifel Nicolaus, but United's shares weren't any worse off than their large rivals American (AAL) and Delta (DAL).

American Airlines does have a large hub in Dallas, where the infected Ebola patient was identified, but the stock wasn't down any more than others.

"I think it's a general concern that people are going to start traveling less if this gets worse," DeNardi said. "There's no discrimination between international and domestic."

DeNardi noted that up until this point, airlines were largely spared from concerns about Ebola. But now, he says Wall Street is wagering that if the virus spreads further in the United States, people's travel decisions are going to change.

  Ebola crisis: World Bank pledges $400M

To be sure, airlines have had quite the run this year thanks to an improving economy, higher fares, and overall consolidation in the industry. Southwest has taken off almost 75% while its competitors are all up 20% to 35%.

But airlines weren't alone in their Ebola travel misery Wednesday.

Priceline (PCLN, Tech30) and Expedia (EXPE)also took a bit of hit, with shares of the two discount travel sites down around 1.5% and 2% each, respectively.