Saturday, May 31, 2014

5 Reasons You Don’t Get More Referrals

As a financial advisor, rep, broker, agent, or planner, without generating referral-based business, you will fail. It’s as simple as that. Of course there are exceptions, but not many.

So what is it that gets in the way of getting more referrals. Or any referrals, for that matter?

It’s the pressure, man. The pressure of writing more cases, dropping more tickets, getting more accounts, selling more products, accumulating more assets, and being in front of more people.

With all the pressure to hit your numbers and generate commission, it’s easy to lose sight of what’s important. And what is important? If I had to guess, I would say relationships. But here’s the thing: It’s easy to forget about the importance of relationships when you’re simply looking to hit your numbers. And without focusing on relationships, it makes it very difficult to make a sale, grow your book, and ultimately help people. Isn’t that what it’s all about?

(Related: 33 Cold Call Truths You Need to Know: Bill Good)

Here are five things that may be preventing you from doing all of the above.

It’s just semantics, but a referral is whatever you want it to be. If you want a referral to simply be the name of someone to cold call then so be it. If that’s your expectation, then that’s what ye shall receive. Here’s a quick example. Many years ago, I attended weekly meetings at a networking group. This was the type of group that only allows one of each type of profession as a member — one financial advisor, one residential realtor, and so on. In this group, the realtor would request FSBOs (For Sale By Owner) contacts as “referrals.” The FSBOs weren’t necessarily in the market for a realtor, but that was the request and therefore the result. The guy got lots of FSBOs, but not a lot of closed business. As a financial advisor, if you’re in the market for anyone that doesn’t already have an advisor, that’s what you’ll get. Then, you’ll have to work really hard to “sell them.”

So what’s my definition of a referral? An introduction to a specific individual that’s already in the market for what I’m offering. Again, ask and ye shall receive.

Do you even have a target market? A target market should represent whom you serve best and therefore wish to serve most. In short, your target market is where you do your best work. The more specific you are about describing your target marketplace, the more gravity (opportunities coming to you) you will create.

By the way, small businesses, high net worth individuals, the affluent marketplace, pre-retirees, families, and “everyone needs what I do” are not good examples of a target market. Each of the segments I described is much too broad. Pick one or two (no more!) markets and try to be more specific. For example, what type of ‘small businesses’? What industry, profession, market segment, niche, geography, demographic, etc.? As soon as you can get down to the specifics, it’s much easier to figure out (from a networking mindset) where you might go, what you might say, and with whom you might want to meet. It makes your marketing so much easier. That is, if you’re into that sort of thing.


A networking mindset is all about looking to establish better relationships with those that you know and like, as well as those you meet. Networking is creating a WE dynamic with the people you interact with most. How can WE help one another? How can WE refer each other business? Rinse, repeat! And if you’re a true networker, you’re always looking to meet new people and add to your network.

Consider who your target market might be. If you’re not sure, see the previous page. Once you have that figured out, think about the professions that come in contact with your target market, or even better, sell to your target market without competing with you. Where do you need to go to meet these folks? Maybe it’s time to have a WE conversation.

If you can be specific about the type of business you want, you have a Call to Action. If you can’t, you may have challenges getting more and better referrals. Without having a refined target market, it may be difficult to forge a strong Call to Action.

Since my target market is the financial services industry (wire houses, broker dealers, insurance carriers, mutual fund/annuity companies, independent marketing organizations, banks, etc.), it makes it easy for me to present a Call to Action.

“I’m always looking to meet or be introduced to managers for companies like [fill in the blank]. Any advice on how to make these types of connections would be very helpful to me!”

Remember, don’t forget about the WE dynamic. If you help others with their Call to Action, they’ll help you right back. That’s how it works.

I’m not quite sure if it’s a good thing or bad thing, but not everyone you meet will like you. Harsh but true. Accept it and move on! Focus on those that share your values, most of your opinions, your vision and, most importantly, people that you truly like. You don’t have to root for the same sports teams, but if you feel a connection toward them, it’s very likely they will have a feel for you. If not, don’t force it.

Establishing likeability and common ground (chemistry) is the first phase in making a true connection. Without chemistry, nothing else matters.

-- Related ThinkAdvisor stories:

Wolff: The unlikely marriage of Apple and Beats

Jimmy Iovine? Apple's new partner? To judge by the media hurrahs, Apple's future?

What's wrong with this picture?

Apple is a top-down, buttoned-down, lockstep enterprise managed, after Steve Jobs' death, by his apparatchiks and other relative automatons. Iovine, a producer and impresario from the music industry's bad days, is a promoter and publicity seeker who has often veered toward outré practices and personalities.

So, Apple, teaming up with Iovine, seems either to have a Machiavellian plan of extraordinary vision and incalculable nuance and subtlety, or is taking a wild roll of the dice.

Or both. That is, the Apple of sui generis design and savant marketing, offering among the most singular visions of consumer desire, is over. And now it begins a force-of-will effort to build a more broad-based, if less exceptional, consumer products and entertainment content company. Kind of a Sony (in its better days), with lots of products, some good, some not so good.

Still, Beats Electronics, Iovine's company, which Apple is acquiring for $3 billion, makes headphones and has a minor streaming music service. It's a peculiar rather than an audacious expansion.

WOLFF: Music icon enters the streaming business

The headphones are an inelegant piece of mediocre or commonplace engineering — a middle-market consumer electronics accessory. This is rather the antithesis of the kind of products that have defined Apple. Indeed, headphones are a product that, were they judged worthy of Apple, the company might have reimagined and transformed (audio Google Glass? Some next step in wearable computing or neural communication?). Or, probably not. In the oversaturated world of ever-commodified consumer electronics devices, headphones would have been an SKU the old Apple would have gladly overlooked.

Then there's streaming music. Instead of buying the leading player in the streaming game, Spotify, or one of the growing contenders, it bought the laggard. The bottom of the heap. Spo! tify has 10 million customers. Beats has little more than 100,000 (it says it has 250,000, but that number has been widely challenged). What's more, the streaming music business is much less the music business than it is the technology business — not a business of taste and relationships, but of functionality.

In Beats, Apple has acquired a platform that has tried to substitute taste — now called curation — for what it lacks in technology development. (Curiously, Beats' chief creative officer, Trent Reznor, the singer-songwriter and producer of Nine Inch Nails fame responsible for Beats' tastemaking, has reportedly left the company. Also, one of Beats' principal technology executives, Fredric Vinna, has recently gone to Spotify, and its co-founder, Ola Sars, to a Spotify-backed venture.)

Still. If Apple foresees a future in which its key market attribute (i.e., its cool) will diminish or be lost, then it makes sense to leverage its clout into new areas — even if this involves turning yourself into a less iconic and less cool company. Clout is transferable in a way that cool is not.

Indeed, almost all of Beats' growth in its music service has come from its promotion in the Apple App store. This seems now, obviously, to have been a smart marketing move by Iovine, because it led to Beats' purchase by Apple. It is, however, a suicidal move by anyone trying to build an actual streaming music business.

The business is a simple one. Seventy percent of the money goes to the record labels holding the overriding music licenses; 30 percent goes to the streaming company, out of which it covers all its costs. The Apple App store is also a simple business, and quite a draconian one: Apple gets 30 percent of the subscription fees generated by sales in the App store. In other words, Beats has built its business by incurring serious losses. That's why other streaming services, most notably Spotify, eschew Apple — they can't afford it.

Of course, the math improves if Apple owns the! steaming! service. Apple might charge everyone else 30 percent on its App site, but cut a special deal for itself. Or, maintaining appearances, it might continue to charge its house service 30 percent, but underwrite its losses. That is a powerful, and peculiarly legal, advantage — at least in the U.S. On the other hand, it promises a monster anti-competitive battle in Europe, where such self-dealing isn't legal.

Of note, there is, in every label deal, a change of control provision. The labels have the right to exit from or renegotiate deals with Beats after the Apple acquisition — a payback moment, perhaps, for the pitiless deals Apple has cut with the labels for the iTunes store

And then there is Iovine. In some sense, he may be the music industry's ultimate revenge on Apple. Quite possibly, Apple believes he represents that ineffable pixie dust of "relationships" which, for so long, the music business traded in and prospered from. He will, Apple seems to believe, be able to help hold the line on change of control negotiations. And he will be able to give Apple the music bona fides that Spotify has acquired. Iovine — as far from the Apple ethos and ethic and sense of itself as two different points of culture can be — will make it cool again. (Even though Apple has contributed to making Iovine and the excesses and baloney of the music business quite uncool.)

Iovine, Apple must inexplicably believe, is a team player. Easy prediction: He's gone in 12 months.

So what is Apple doing?

It might be forgiven for not knowing. Apple has distinguished itself largely thanks to the leadership of a man who is dead. Its products, once unique, now exist in an overheated market. The specter of anti-competitive regulation is everywhere. Music, a business it thought it was going to own, has gone somewhere else.

In such a state of uncertainty and worry, and with billions in the bank, it's pretty normal to get snookered by someone like Jimmy Iovine.

4 Stocks Under $10 Making Big Moves

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

>>5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

>>5 Large-Cap Trades for All-Time Highs

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside.

Vical

Vical (VICL) is engaged in the research and development of biopharmaceutical products based on its DNA delivery technologies for the prevention and treatment of serious or life-threatening diseases. This stock closed up 2.4% to $1.25 a share in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $1.22-$1.28

52-Week Range: $1.01-$4.51

Thursday's Volume: 1.27 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.04 million

From a technical perspective, VICL spiked modestly higher here back above its 50-day moving average of $1.24 with above-average volume. This spike higher on Thursday is starting to push shares of VICL within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if VICL manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $1.30 to $1.36 with strong upside volume. Keep in mind that taking out those levels will also push VICL back above its 200-day moving average of $1.29.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in VICL as long as it's trending above some near-term support levels at $1.20 or at $1.16 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 1.04 million shares. If that breakout starts soon, then VICL will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $1.50 to $1.60, or even $1.66 to $1.75.

Hercules Offshore

Hercules Offshore (HERO), together with its subsidiaries, provides shallow-water drilling and marine services to the oil and natural gas exploration and production industry worldwide. This stock closed up 2.2% to $4.55 a share in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $4.45-$4.56

52-Week Range: $4.21-$7.96

Thursday's Volume: 6.74 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 4.15 million

From a technical perspective, HERO bounced notably higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $4.49 with strong upside volume flows. This stock recently formed a double bottom chart pattern at $4.34 to $4.32. Following that bottom, shares of HERO have now started to spike higher back above its 50-day and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if HERO manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $4.60 to $4.68 and then above more resistance at $4.72 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in HERO as long as it's trending above those double bottom support zones and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 4.15 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then HERO will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $4.86 to $4.98. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give HERO a chance to re-test or possibly take out its 200-day moving average of $5.84.

SFX Entertainment

SFX Entertainment (SFXE) is engaged in the production live events and digital entertainment content that focuses on the electronic music culture and other festivals. This stock closed up 2.5% to $7.34 a share in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $7.15-$7.41

52-Week Range: $5.41-$13.39

Thursday's Volume: 482,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 780,419

From a technical perspective, SFXE rose modestly higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $7.13 with lighter-than-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of SFXE within range of triggering big breakout trade. That trade will hit if SFXE manages to take out Thursday's intraday high of $7.41 to some more key overhead resistance at $7.49 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in SFXE as long as it's trending above $7 or above $6.50 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 780,419 shares. If that breakout kicks off soon, then SFXE will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $8.14 to $8.57, or even $9.

Cache

Cache (CACH) operates as a mall-based and online woman's specialty retailer of apparel and accessories in the U.S. This stock closed flat to $1.75 a share in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $1.75-$1.84

52-Week Range: $1.15-$6.83

Thursday's Volume: 204,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 230,282

From a technical perspective, CACH moved within range of $1.84 on the upside and $1.75 on the downside in Thursday's trading session with decent volume. Despite the lack of movement to the upside, shares of CACH are still trending very close to triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if CACH manages to take out some key near-term overhead resistance at $1.85 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CACH as long as it's trending above some key near-term support at $1.72 and then once it sustains a move or close above $1.85 with volume that hits near or above 230,282 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then CACH will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $2.62 to its 50-day moving average of $2.72. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give CACH a chance to tag its next major overhead resistance levels at $3.40 to $3.63.

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>4 Big Stocks on Traders' Radars



>>3 Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume



>>Warren Buffett Is Sick of These 4 Stocks

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com.

You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Friday, May 30, 2014

FactSet Q4 Profits Rise 5% on Higher Revenues; Adjusted EPS Misses Estimates (FDS)

Before the opening bell on Tuesday, financial data provider FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS) reported a 5% year-over-year increase in fourth quarter profits, which was aided by a 5.7% rise in revenues. Though these revenues were able to top Wall Street analysts’ estimates, the company’s adjusted earnings missed views.

The Norwalk, Connecticut-based company posted a fourth quarter net income of $51.0 million, or $1.16 per share, up slightly from the $48.5 million, or $1.08 per share, earned in the same period a year ago.

On an adjusted basis, FactSet’s quarterly net income came in at $52.84 million, or $1.20 per share. This adjusted net income excludes an after-tax charge of $1.84 million, or 4 cents per share. According to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, FactSet was expected to earn an adjusted $1.21 per share in the fourth quarter.

The company’s quarterly revenues advanced to $219.33 million in the most recent quarter, up 5.7% from the $207.66 million posted in the fourth quarter of 2012. On average, analysts were expecting the company to see $218.93 million in revenues for the quarter.

Looking forward, FactSet said it expects earnings to be between $1.21 and $1.24 in the first quarter of fiscal 2014. Furthermore, first quarter revenues are expected to come in between $222 million and $225 million. Analysts, on average, believe that FDS will earn $1.23 per share on revenues of $225.04 million in the first quarter of 2014.

FactSet Research shares were down $1.10, or 0.98%, during pre-market trading on Tuesday. The stock is up 27.47% year-to-date.

That $41 Trillion Wealth Transfer Now Officially $59 Trillion

The vaunted $41 trillion wealth transfer that is the subject of every other broker-dealer conference since the turn of the millennium has been freshly updated — and upgraded: It’s now reached $59 trillion.

Broker-dealers and asset management firms have long implored their advisor sales force to get a piece of this money in motion — part of the largest transfer of wealth in history.

Now the Center on Wealth and Philanthropy (CWP) of Boston College has released an update of its 1999 report that was the source for the oft-cited $41 trillion figure.

Importantly, the higher number, representing the amount of national wealth to be transferred over a 55-year period, does not signify an increase of $18 trillion.

That is because the $40.6 trillion figure from CWP’s 1999 study was expressed in 1998 dollars, which translates to $52 trillion in 2007 dollars.

The updated wealth transfer estimate, also expressed in 2007 dollars, is therefore $7 trillion greater — a significant finding given the ravages of the Great Recession, which impacted the finances of Americans making bequests and charitable donations at the start of the 55-year period under study (from 2007 to 2061; the earlier estimate was based on the 55 years from 1998 to 2052).

Indeed, the precipitous decline in growth that marked the Great Recession’s 2007 onset forms the back story that the report’s authors, John Havens and Paul Schervish, investigated in their wealth study.

While they found the loss of wealth to be pervasive, with the wealthy losing more in dollar terms, they found the impact of loss to be quite skewed in impact: the top 10% of households with net worths of $1 million or more lost about 21% of their wealth compared to an 81% decline in wealth for the 50% of households with net worth under $100,000.

The key reason for this disparate impact was the much higher levels of debt among the less affluent; liabilities, just like assets, are a factor in net worth and less wealthy households carry higher debt than wealthier households.

“Since the proportional reduction of wealth was smaller among the wealthy households that donate the most to charitable causes and that account for the majority of wealth transfer as compared with households at the lower end of the distribution, the recession’s impact on wealth transfer and charitable giving was somewhat attenuated,” the CWP report finds.

Nevertheless, the report estimates that had there been no Great Recession, wealth transfer in the current period under study would be some 25% greater — amounting to $73.3 trillion.

A key finding of the report of potential interest to financial advisors is a wave of new wealth transfer — growing both in frequency and in the amount transferred — by wealthy households aged 65 to 79. “This transfer was not evident before the millennium,” the authors write.

Indeed, the CWP report cites anecdotal evidence from wealth advisors and financial planners, buttressed by statistics:

“We are told that more assets are being transferred via trusts, partnerships, direct gifts, and other vehicles of transfer during the lifetime of wealth holders than was the case 10 to 15 years ago.”

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve data indicates “consistently higher” inheritances in recent years than one would expect from estate tax data emanating from the IRS. Another finding of the report is that maintaining the high level of estate tax exemption initiated during the Bush administration (rather than reverting to 2001 levels) leads to significantly greater wealth transfer and charitable giving.

But perhaps the most important takeaway for financial advisors — and the broker-dealers urging them to help Americans pass on their great wealth — is that nearly all of that $59 trillion in motion comes from the very wealthiest Americans.

Americans with more ordinary incomes transfer wealth and give to charity — but they lack the financial resources to make large bequests.

In terms of final estates (i.e., excluding lifetime gifts), the CWP report finds that just 5% to 20% of households with $1 million or more in wealth account for roughly 63% to 8% of transfer to take place during the 55-year period under study.

As for philanthropic giving, “roughly half the donations to charitable causes each year are made from households with less than $1 million in wealth; the other half are made from households with $1 million or more,” the report finds.

---

Check out 10 Steps to Becoming a Multigenerational Advisor: Pershing on ThinkAdvisor.

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Baron Funds Comments on Yandex N.V.

Yandex N.V. (YNDX) is the leading search engine provider in Russia. The stock was a detractor in the first quarter due to a decline in the Russian ruble and rising geopolitical tension over Crimea. Although we expect the conflict to negatively impact the company's growth rate going forward, we continue to hold shares in Yandex due to, in our view, its strong competitive positioning and positive long-term growth prospects relative to its current valuation.

From Baron Funds' first quarter 2014 commentary.

Also check out: Ron Baron Undervalued Stocks Ron Baron Top Growth Companies Ron Baron High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Ron Baron keeps buying
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Wednesday, May 28, 2014

WDAY: Workday Keeps On Working

Facebook Logo Twitter Logo LinkedIn Logo Google Plus Logo RSS Logo Tom Taulli Popular Posts: 4 Startups Google Might Buy With Its $30BSprouts Leads 7 IPOs for the Week7 New Stocks to Watch: JD.com to Test the IPO Market Recent Posts: WDAY: Workday Keeps On Working Should I Buy Intel Stock? 3 Pros, 3 Cons 4 Startups Google Might Buy With Its $30B View All Posts

Workday (WDAY), which operates a cloud platform for enterprise resource planning (ERP), has reported another blow-out quarter. Revenues surged by 74% to $159.7 million, beating the consensus estimate of $152.4 million.

Workday185 WDAY: Workday Keeps On WorkingDespite this, Workday stock has only jumped one percentage point and remains flat in 2014. So maybe this is an opportunity for investors?

Workday stock suffered from a big selloff over the past few months, as have most other cloud companies like ServiceNow (NOW), Veeva Systems (VEEV) and Cornerstone OnDemand (CSOD). After reaching an all-time high of $115 in late February, WDAY quickly tumbled to a low of $59.

For the most part, Wall Street has moved away from momentum stocks to value plays like Oracle (ORCL) and Microsoft (MSFT). But now it looks like the valuations for cloud stocks have stabilized somewhat, especially as the sector continues to show growth.

As for Workday stock, it does have a promising long-term future. ERP software is mission critical for companies, helping with functions like HR, inventory, payroll and financials. So when a company implements this kind of technology, it’s a major investment.

For WDAY, the focus is primarily on Global 2000 customers, who are tough to please. In other words, it would be far from easy for a rival startup to go after this market. As a result, much of the competition is from legacy operators, like ORCL and SAP (SAP), that have lagged with their cloud offerings.

In the latest quarter, WDAY demonstrated the scale of its solutions. For example, HP (HPQ) went live with its ERP implementation for more than 300,000 employees in more than 100 countries. Then there was Philips, which launched WDAY for more than 100,000 employees in more than 70 countries.

By being in the cloud, WDAY certainly has some key advantages. Updates are seamless because all customers are on the same code base and collaboration is much easier, whether from a laptop or mobile device. The interface is also intuitive, which allows for more usage of the software. What's more, WDAY leverages the benefits of Big Data, providing a company with tremendous insights to make better business decisions.

WDAY has also continued to innovate its platform. To this end, the company recently launched Workday Recruiting, which takes a new approach applicant tracking. That is, the software leverages mobile and social medial.

It certainly helps that WDAY has two experienced co-founders, Aneel Bhusri and Chairman Dave Duffield. Keep in mind that they built PeopleSoft, which was the pioneer of the ERP space. So it should be no surprise that they know how to build a world-class technology that customers are willing to spend big dollars on.

But there is still the nagging issue of the valuation on Workday stock. No doubt, it is far from cheap, even after the selloff. Consider that it trades at a nose-bleed valuation of 32 times sales!

But then again, that kind of premium is expected for a company that has huge barriers to entry and an outsized market opportunity. According to Statista, the market for ERP software is expected to grow from $23.8 billion in 2011 to $32.6 billion by 2016.

Besides, WDAY is showing no signs of slowing down. In the latest quarter, the company added more than 60 new customers, bringing its total customers to more than 675. Billings also came to $208 million, which was well above the Wall Street consensus of $165 million.

Thus, for investors that are looking for a way to play the cloud, Workday stock does look interesting. True, there will probably be volatility with cloud stocks but this is normal for any fast-growing industry. But with WDAY, it looks like the company is still in the early stages — and it would be tough for competitors to get an edge. If you’re considering WDAY stock, now might be a good time to buy.

Tom Taulli runs the InvestorPlace blog IPO Playbook. He is also the author of High-Profit IPO Strategies, All About Commodities and All About Short Selling. Follow him on Twitter at @ttaulli. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

5 Money Moves To Make In September

September is a month that marks many endings and many beginnings. Summer ends as the warm weather starts to fade away. Kids are heading back to school to meet new teachers and prepare for a new year. From a financial perspective, September is also a great time for a quick reboot of your financial mind-set.

Here's are some financial moves you should consider this month:

1. Check your free credit report.

You get a free credit report from each of the three major credit bureaus -- Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. While you can check all three credit report at once, it is usually a better idea to pull them four months apart. If you decided to do just that, by pulling one in January and one in May, then you should be pulling your last free credit report of the year in September.

2. Review your television needs and cut the bill.

Before the fall TV season kicks off, take a look at some of the shows that are a must-watch while noting the ones that have ended. Why pay for channels that you won't be watching? With the advent of services such as Hulu and Netflix, you might find that the monthly cost of cable TV is not worth it. (You might even use this as leverage to negotiate a lower cable bill.)

3. Take advantage of the ending life cycle of consumer goods.

The end of summer is the point in the year when companies are looking to clear out this year's items before ramping up production for next year's inventory. Rebates, discounts and other incentives may be in store for major purchases such as cars and appliances. If you don't mind using an older model of a consumer good, then look out for the opportunities to buy some things on cheap.

4. Quarterly taxes are due.

If you are self-employed, a freelancer or a small-business owner, remember that your estimated quarterly tax payments are due. The deadline is Sept. 16 -- many of you should have marked it on the calendar!

5. Holidays are expensive, so start saving.

Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas are just around the corner. Whether its travel or gifts, you're likely to be spending money for these occasions. Start thinking about any holiday plans and how much you expect them to cost. Getting your costume, booking flights and buying presents are some of the major tasks that you need to start thinking about to avoid the holiday rush. (And, don't forget about the shopping frenzy of Black Friday.)

This Acquisition Will Add to Google's Long-Term Growth

It's all going to be about what OS is eventually going to not only be powering your computer and phone, but running in your vehicle and controlling the appliances in your home. Companies like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG)(GOOGL), and even BlackBerry (BBRY) are duking it out to own your personal ecosystem.

We all recall when Google purchased Nest — the company that makes thermostats and fire alarms — earlier this year for $3.2 billion. Nest was a smaller company, founded by a former Apple engineer in 2010. The purchase price that Google put on Nest was a shocker, as it was "nearly 10 times more than Nest's annual revenue."

Here we are just months later, and Nest has just issued a massive safety warning that's suggesting to users that they should turn off the "Nest Wave" feature of the products, which the company states could inadvertently turn off the product.

Nest's CEO issued the following letter.

To the Nest community:

Since introducing the Nest Protect: Smoke + Carbon Monoxide alarm, we've heard touching stories from many of you about how we've helped keep you and your families safe. I consider your safety a huge part of my job and it's something I think about and take pride in every day.

At Nest, we conduct regular, rigorous tests to ensure that our products are the highest quality. During recent laboratory testing of the Nest Protect smoke alarm, we observed a unique combination of circumstances that caused us to question whether the Nest Wave (a feature that enables you to turn off your alarm with a wave of the hand) could be unintentionally activated. This could delay an alarm going off if there was a real fire. We identified this problem ourselves and are not aware of any customers who have experienced this, but the fact that it could even potentially happen is extremely important to me and I want to address it immediately.

We feel that the best and safest thing to do is to immediately disable the Nest Wave feature to resolve the issue and remove any safety concerns. While we fix Nest Wave, we have also halted sales of all new Nest Protect alarms to ensure no one buys an alarm that needs an immediate update.

Once we have a solution that ensures Nest Wave works as intended, we will update our software to turn this feature back on. This will only happen after extensive testing and once we have received approval from safety agencies in the US, Canada and UK. We expect this to take at least two or three months and we'll continue to update you as we have more information.

We're enormously sorry for the inconvenience caused by this issue. The team and I are dedicated to ensuring that we can stand behind each Nest product that comes into your home, and your 100% satisfaction and safety are what motivates us. Please know that the entire Nest team and I are focused on fixing this problem and continuing to improve our current products in every way possible. If you don't want to keep your Nest Protect smoke alarm, we will give you a complete refund.

Our customer support team is available to help answer any and all questions you have, and we've posted detailed answers to some of the questions we anticipate here.

Thank you for your continued loyalty and support."

Immediately, people are likely to already be thinking, "Another GM (GM)?" But no, this is not quite a GM. This is an important update, but is nowhere near the magnitude of the recall that GM is finding itself going through.

Nest is proactively addressing this issue, which is something that GM most certainly did not do. Further, Nest has claimed that this issue has yet to be a complaint from customers themselves; it was simply something they found internally while performing laboratory testing.

Additionally, the fix is going to be relatively simple and akin to the Tesla charger recall: Nest will stop selling current units and will blast those with Wi-Fi access with an update that will fix the issue. Like Tesla (TSLA)'s ridiculous headlines about the "Model S recall" that wasn't really a recall, this is likely to be filed under "non-events" over the next couple of days as well, I'm predicting.

This news comes on the heels of Google's "split" of its non-voting class of stock. Yesterday, Google's non-voting C shares were issued for each existing A share in a 2:1 split that the company says it will use for liquidity purposes. Both classes of shares got a bump in trading yesterday morning.

Long erm, with Eric, Sergey and Larry all still at the helm of the ship, Google is likely set to continue its exponential growth and aggressive competition in the ecosystem game. Google stock, I contend, remains a strong value for long-term growth.

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Michael Kors, Toll Brothers are stocks to watch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Among the shares expected to see active trade in Wednesday's session are those of Michael Kors Holdings Ltd., Toll Brothers Inc. and Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc.

Michael Kors (KORS)  is projected to report fiscal-fourth-quarter earnings of 68 cents a share, according to a consensus survey by FactSet. Analysts at Wedbush reiterated the stock's outperform rating and raised its 12-month price target to $108 from $100.

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Toll Brothers (TOL)  is forecast to post fiscal-second-quarter earnings of 27 cents a share. The stock is rated underperform with a price target of $28 at Sterne Agee.

Cracker Barrel (CBRL)  is expected to report earnings of $1.22 a share in the fiscal third quarter.

DSW Inc. (DSW)  is seen posting first-quarter earnings of 48 cents a share.

Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW)  is forecast to report earnings of 10 cents a share in the fiscal third quarter.

Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Inc. (PLKI)  is expected to report first-quarter earnings of 45 cents a share.

After Tuesday's closing bell, Workday Inc. (WDAY)  reported an adjusted first-quarter loss of 13 cents a share, narrower than the loss of 15 cents a share projected by analysts. Shares of the enterprise cloud-application company rose 6.2% in after-hours trading.

3D Systems Corp. (DDD)  said late Tuesday that is will be offering about 6 million shares in a secondary offering. 3D Systems dropped 4.6% in extended trading.

More MarketWatch news:

Van Doorn: Dividend stocks that offset inflation in retirement

Apple's best close in almost 2 years

Penny-stock email pitches surge in 2013

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Top Managed Healthcare Stocks To Invest In Right Now

Ah, yes. An old-school, red-blooded, rear-drive, V-8, Yank hot-rod ...

Built with Mexican drivetrains, by folks in Australia, which the automaker in question plans to abandon as a place to build cars in a couple of years.

That's the milieu of the 2014 Chevrolet SS. It's Chevy's first V-8, rear-drive, big performance sedan since 1996.

While unusual, that configuration isn't unique among Detroit makers. Chrysler sells the big, rear-drive 300 and Dodge Charger sedans that can be fitted with a powerful Hemi V-8.

The SS is sort of a Corvette sedan, in the sense the engine's from the last-generation (C6) Corvette and the car tickles the same go-fast, be-noticed compartments in heart, head and soul.

If the SS did nothing more in this starved, three-cylinder era than provide warm recollections of big Chevy Impalas with 409-cubic-inch V-8s, and hefty Ford Galaxie sedans with 406s and 427s, that alone would be sufficient reason for the SS to exist.

Top Managed Healthcare Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Town Sports International Holdings Inc.(CLUB)

Town Sports International Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates fitness clubs in the northeast and mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. Its facilities include cardiovascular equipment; free weight and strength equipment; group exercise and cycling studios; the entertainment system network; locker rooms, including shower facilities and towel services; and other amenities, such as saunas, babysitting, and a pro-shop. The company also provides swimming pools, and racquet and basketball courts; and programs, which include small group training, children?s programs, and other programs targeting adult members. As of December 31, 2011, it operated 160 fitness clubs comprising 108 New York Sports Clubs, 25 Boston Sports Clubs, 18 Washington Sports Clubs, and 6 Philadelphia Sports Clubs, as well as 3 clubs located in Switzerland. The company is based in New York, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Town Sports International Holdings (Nasdaq: CLUB  ) reported earnings on July 24. Here are the numbers you need to know.

    The 10-second takeaway
    For the quarter ended June 30 (Q2), Town Sports International Holdings met expectations on revenues and met expectations on earnings per share.

Top Managed Healthcare Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc.(HOT)

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. operates as a hotel and leisure company worldwide. The company operates luxury and upscale full service hotels, select-service hotels, extended stay hotels, resorts, retreats, and residences under St. Regis, The Luxury Collection, W, Westin, Le M�idien, Sheraton, Four Points, Aloft, and Element brand names. It also engages in the development and operation of vacation ownership resorts; marketing and selling vacation ownership interests in the resorts; and provision of financing to customers who purchase such interests. In addition, the company develops, markets, and sells residential units at mixed use hotel projects. As of December 31, 2011, its hotel portfolio included 1,076 owned, managed, or franchised hotels with approximately 315,300 rooms; and 13 stand-alone vacation ownership resorts and residential properties. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut. Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwid e Inc. operates independently of ITT Corporation as of December 19, 1995.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Monica Gerson]

    Breaking news

    Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (NYSE: HOT) reported a gain in its third-quarter core earnings and lifted its full-year earnings forecast. To read the full news, click here. Procera Networks (NASDAQ: PKT) and Skyfire, a fully-owned subsidiary of Opera Software, today announced a joint solution and partnership to tackle the rapid growth of video traffic on global mobile networks, based on an open, scalable ICAP architecture. To read the full news, click here. R. R. Donnelley & Sons Company (NASDAQ: RRD) and Consolidated Graphics (NYSE: CGX) jointly announced today that they have signed a definitive agreement by which RR Donnelley will acquire Consolidated Graphics, a provider of digital and commercial printing, fulfillment services, print management and proprietary Internet-based technology solutions. To read the full news, click here. Dunkin' Brands Group (NASDAQ: DNKN) reported a 36% rise in its third-quarter income. To read the full news, click here.

    Posted-In: Jobless Claims JP Morgan US Stock FuturesNews Eurozone Futures Global Pre-Market Outlook Markets

  • [By Matt Thalman]

    In the following video, Fool contributor Matt Thalman discusses a few metrics and areas investors should focus their attention on when looking at Starwood's (NYSE: HOT  ) upcoming earnings report.

  • [By Patricio Kehoe]

    This company is known for its famous midscale brands Holiday Inn and Holiday Inn Express, as well as the upscale hotels InterContinental and Crowne Plaza. The interesting factor, however, is the high rate of franchised and managed hotels among these brands, compared to industry rivals Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) or Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (HOT). With more than 99% franchised or managed hotels in the InterContinental system, this company profits from excessive operating margins of 33.2% (the industry average is 8.70%) and minimal capital expenditures.

  • [By Reuters]

    ATLANTA -- A credit card data breach has been detected that exposed guests at certain Marriott, Holiday Inn, Sheraton and other hotel properties to theft, hotel management firm White Lodging Services said Monday. The breach occurred at food and beverage outlets at 14 hotels, including some operated under the Westin, Renaissance and Radisson names, between March 20 and Dec. 16 last year, White Lodging said in a statement. The company said information subject to potential theft by cybercriminals included names and numbers on consumers' debit or credit cards, security codes and card expiration dates. Customers who used their cards at the affected outlets should review all statements from the time in question and consider placing fraud alerts on their credit files, White Lodging said. White Lodging wouldn't estimate how many card numbers might have been taken. Krebs on Security, the cybersecurity blog that first reported the breach Friday, said thousands of accounts had been compromised. The latest data breach comes after the FBI warned retailers last month to prepare for more cyber attacks after discovering about 20 hacking cases in the past year involving the same kind of malicious software used against Target (TGT) over the holiday shopping season. The incident involving Target, the No. 3 U.S. retailer, was one of the biggest retail cyber attacks in history. In a confidential, three-page report to retail companies the FBI described the risks posed by "memory-parsing" malware that infects point-of-sale systems, which include cash registers and credit-card swiping machines in checkout aisles. Restaurants and lounges affected by the White Lodging breach were at hotels in Chicago; Austin, Texas; Richmond, Va.; Plantation, Fla.; Denver; Boulder and Broomfield, Colo.; Louisville, Ky.; Erie, Pa.; Indianapolis; and Merrillville, Ind., the company said. White Lodging, which manages 169 hotels that include brands of Marriott International (MAR), Starwood

Top 5 Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now: Career Education Corp (CECO)

Career Education Corporation, incorporated on January 5, 1994, through its colleges, schools and universities offers education to a student population of more than 75,000 students across the world in a variety of career-oriented disciplines through online, on-ground and hybrid learning program offerings. The Company operates four business units: University Schools, Career Schools, International and Transitional Schools. The Company�� institutions include, among others, American InterContinental University (AIU); Brooks Institute; Colorado Technical University (CTU); Harrington College of Design; INSEEC Group (INSEEC) Schools; International University of Monaco (IUM); International Academy of Design & Technology (IADT); Le Cordon Bleu North America (LCB), and Sanford-Brown Institutes and Colleges. In December 2013, Career Education Corp announced sale and transfer of control of its European education properties to private equity firm Apax Partners.

University Schools

The Company�� Colorado Technical University (CTU) schools collectively offer academic programs in the career-oriented disciplines of business studies, information systems and technologies, criminal justice, computer science and engineering, and health sciences in an online, classroom or laboratory setting. American InterContinental University (AIU) schools collectively offer academic programs in the career-oriented disciplines of business studies, information technologies, criminal justice and design technologies in an online, classroom or laboratory setting.

Career Schools

The Company�� Health Education includes its Sanford-Brown schools, along with Brown College, Briarcliffe College and Missouri College. These schools collectively offer academic programs in the career-oriented disciplines of health education, complemented by certain programs in business studies and information technology in a classroom, laboratory or online setting. Culinary Arts includes its Le Cordon Bleu schoo! ls in North America that collectively offer hands-on programs in the career-oriented disciplines of culinary arts and patisserie and baking in the commercial kitchens of Le Cordon Bleu, and advanced degree programs in culinary arts and hotel and restaurant management online. Design and Technology includes IADT, Harrington College of Design and Brooks Institute schools. These schools collectively offer academic programs primarily in the career-oriented disciplines of fashion design, game design, graphic design, interior design, film and video production, photography and visual communications in a classroom, laboratory or online setting, as well as jobs training in the field of energy conservation.

International

The Company�� International includes its INSEEC schools and IUM school which are located in France, the United Kingdom and Monaco. These schools collectively offer academic programs in the career-oriented disciplines of business studies, health education, advertising, communications and technologies and luxury goods and services in a classroom or laboratory setting.

Transitional Schools

The Company�� Transitional Schools includes its campuses that are being taught out. Schools that operate within this segment include Collins College, Phoenix, AZ, Colorado Technical University (CTU), CTU Pueblo, Pueblo, CO, and CTU Sioux Falls, Sioux Falls, SD.

The Company competes with Apollo Group, Bridgepoint Education, Inc., Capella Education Company, Corinthian Colleges, Inc., DeVry Inc., Education Management Corporation, Grand Canyon Education, Inc., ITT Educational Services, Kaplan and Strayer Education.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Lauren Pollock]

    Career Education Corp.(CECO) agreed to sell its European education properties to private equity firm Apax Partners for a total of $305 million. Shares of Career Education rose.

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Stocks on the Move: Career Education Corp. (NASDAQ: CECO) is up 57.6% at $5.99 after selling its European properties for $305 million. NQ Mobile Inc. (NYSE: NQ) is down another 12.3% at $10.60 after yesterday�� 50% drop following a scathing report from analysts at Muddy Waters.

Top Managed Healthcare Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Xyratex Ltd.(XRTX)

Xyratex Ltd provides modular solutions for the enterprise data storage industry and hard disk drive (HDD) capital equipment for the HDD industry. It offers enterprise data storage solutions that include storage enclosures, which provide a common technology platform that reduces qualification time for original equipment manufacturer (OEM) customers and includes management interface software, standardized across enclosures, and provides easy integration as new platforms; integrated application platforms that comprise embedded storage platforms, which incorporate embedded server modules into its storage enclosures; and HPC Solutions that consolidate controllers, storage enclosures, application platforms, operating system, data protection, Lustre File System, and management software into a optimized scale-out storage platform that can be deployed in hours rather than weeks. The company also designs and manufactures a range of process test systems, which incorporate mechanical and electronic hardware, and firmware for controlling the HDD operating environment during the formatting of the disk drive. In addition, it provides automated solutions comprising substrate and media inspection systems; servo track writers and related subassemblies; and head testing systems that test and process HDD components throughout the manufacturing process. The company markets and sells its products primarily to OEMs and disk drive manufacturers, as well as to other companies in North America, Asia, and Europe. Xyratex Ltd was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Havant, the United Kingdom.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Monica Gerson]

    Shares of Xyratex (NASDAQ: XRTX) jumped 27.27% yesterday after the company agreed to be acquired by Seagate Technology Plc (NASDAQ: STX) for around $374 million in cash. Xyratex shares fell 0.15% to $13.28 in the after-hours trading session, while Seagate shares rose 0.02% to $56.02 in after-hours trading.

  • [By Jonathan Fishman]

    Two weeks ago an SA contributor, Kingsley Park Capital, pointed out that shares of Xyratex (XRTX) have a 70% upside. I suggest KPC is being conservative. I think its opinion is priceless, but I would like to offer my financial model to support this thesis and show that the moment the market realizes what's going on, XRTX should be worth $20-$30 a share a year or so from now. Let's get started.

  • [By Lisa Levin]

    Xyratex (NASDAQ: XRTX) shares moved up 26.89% to $13.26. The volume of Xyratex shares traded was 11058% higher than normal. Seagate Technology Plc (NASDAQ: STX) announced its plans to buy Xyratex for around $374 million in cash.

Top Managed Healthcare Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Morgans Hotel Group Co.(MHGC)

Morgans Hotel Group Co., a hospitality company, engages in the acquisition, ownership, operation, development, and redevelopment boutique hotels, nightclubs, restaurants, bars, and other food and beverage venues. It has operations primarily in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is based in New York, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    Morgans Hotel Group (MHGC) operates, owns, acquires, develops and redevelops boutique hotels, primarily in gateway cities and select resort markets in the U.S., Europe and other international locations and nightclubs, restaurants. This stock closed up 3.8% to $6.99 in Tuesday's trading session.

    Tuesday's Range: $6.73-$7.06

    52-Week Range: $4.66-$8.15

    Tuesday's Volume: 388,000

    Three-Month Average Volume: 196,219

    From a technical perspective, MHGC spiked higher here right above its 200-day moving average of $6.45 with above-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of MHGC within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if MHGC manages to take out Tuesday's high of $7.06 and then once it takes out more near-term resistance at $7.20 with high volume.

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in MHGC as long as it's trending above its 200-day at $6.41 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 196,219 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then MHGC will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $8 to its 52-week high at $8.15. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give MHGC a chance to tag its next major overhead resistance levels at $9 to $10.

Summer Trading Plan

Leadership from the S&P 500 continues, leaving the broad-based index poised to own the previously insurmountable 1900. There seems to be little in the S&P 500's way except, perhaps, a bit of market inertia.

With few profit reports scheduled in the days ahead and a light economic calendar until the second half of the week (see figure 3 at the end of this post), it will take select asset classes to rise up to lead the market heading into the summer months. Which will it be? After all, low volatility has not extended to all stock sectors.

For now, nearly all members of the S&P 500, or 98% of the index's total market capitalization, have reported Q1 earnings. Total results were up 1.3% from a year ago on a 2.7% increase in revenues, according to Zacks Investment Research. Nearly 70% of reporting companies beat Street expectations, but a slimmer 52% had positive revenue surprises – a fact not lost on investors already looking ahead to the Q2 reporting season.

As the latest round wraps up, homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) is among a handful of companies to report Wednesday. Retailers are back in focus Thursday as Costco (COST), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), and PacSun (PSUN) are due to report. Ann Taylor (ANN) issues its latest results Friday morning.

The relatively orderly earnings reporting season is one possible reason for the quiet trading of the past few weeks. Keep in mind that the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) has dropped to levels not seen in over a year, at 11.36, and is now a far cry from its 2014 high of 21.48 hit February 3.

VIX tracks the implied volatility priced into S&P 500 Index options and typically falls to low levels when market participants feel confident (sometimes overly confident!) about the outlook for the stock market. VIX is sometimes called the "fear gauge" due to its tendency to spike during periods of market turmoil and heightened investor anxiety.

One Size Does Not Fit All

Indeed, implied volatility eased across much of the listed options market, but the size of the decline has varied from one asset class to the next. For instance, the CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index (VXN) fell below 14 but is still above the mid-November lows of 12.17. VXN is computed using the same VIX methodology, but applied to NASDAQ 100 (NDX) options contracts—an index largely made up of technology shares and some of the momentum-stock darlings that have yanked the stock market in two directions in 2014.

At current levels, VXN is 20% higher than the CBOE Volatility Index. There were times in 2013 when the VXN actually dipped below VIX. However, when the large-cap tech names that dominate the NASDAQ 100 were under pressure in April, VXN hit a high of 22.65 while VIX stayed in the mid-teens (figure 1). At its most extreme, VXN was 40% higher than VIX—the largest difference since before the financial crisis.

TD Ameritrade_Kinahan Blog_Image 1_5 27 14

Figure 1: Chart showing the percentage difference between the S&P 500–tracking VIX and the NASDAQ 100–tracking VXN, with VXN running well above VIX. Data source: CBOE. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Picking on the Little Guy

Small-cap stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 over the past few months as well. Consequently, the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) has not seen the same dramatic decline as VIX. RVX uses the same VIX methodology applied to options on the small-cap Russell 2000 Index (RUT). While VIX is dropping below 12, RVX is north of 18. The percentage difference between the two recently increased to 62%—the greatest difference since 2006 (figure 2).

TD Ameritrade_Kinahan Blog_Image 2_5 27 14

Figure 2: Chart showing the percentage difference between the S&P 500–tracking VIX and the Russell 2000 small cap–tracking RVX, currently at 62% or the greatest difference since 2006. Data source: CBOE. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The S&P 500 is making another stab at record highs and VIX is falling to its lowest levels in over a year. Yet, the NASDAQ Composite is 2.1% below its March highs and the Russell 2000 is still 7.6% from 2014 highs. With the decline in volatility jagged across asset classes, it will be interesting to see whether some groups, such as the NASDAQ big-tech names or the Russell small caps, will grab the flag and charge in the weeks ahead. Or, will volatility in the large-cap names dominating the S&P 500 begin to catch up?

Welcome Back

There's no question that volume has been paper thin and in this holiday-shortened week, there's little reason to believe volume will increase significantly. I know you may be tired of the lectures that have been this blog's recurring theme: "Be vigilant." "Watch the downside." How about if I frame it in the form of that well-worn market mantra: The market goes up using the stairs and down by jumping out the window.

Monday, May 26, 2014

At the Open: War and Policy Uncertainty Tip Stocks Lower; Apache Surges 8% on Egypt Sale

Stocks have ticked lower this morning as uncertainty surrounding an attack on Syria grew and U.S.economic data hinted at a sluggish but still recovering economy.

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The Dow Jones Industrials have fallen 0.2% to 14,814, while the S&P 500 has dropped 0.1% to 1,635.82. The Nasdaq Composite has dropped 0.4% to 3,605.75.

First up: Syria. The Brits have decided not to get involved; the French have decided they will support a strike. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid sums up where we now stand:

Newswires suggest that a US strike could occur as soon as UN inspectors leave the country on Saturday. Meanwhile, Russia is sending two warships to the east Mediterranean, Interfax news agency said on Thursday, but Moscow said it was part of a normal rotation and denied this meant it was beefing up its naval force there.

Ahead of this, the White House will release a declassified intelligence report today which details the evidence that the Syrian government used chemical weapons against civilians…US security sources and sources close to allied governments say evidence suggests that the initial decision to use chemical weapons may have been made by a field commander rather than in an order from the highest level of the Syrian government. A critical piece of the intelligence is an intercepted telephone call between Syrian military officials, one of whom seems to suggest that the chemical weapons attack was more devastating than was intended…

Economic data, meanwhile, continues to hint at a sluggish economic recovery in the U.S. Jefferies’ Thomas Simons explains:

The August MNI-Chicago Business Barometer improved modestly to 53.0 from 52.3 in July.  The index came in right on expectations as the BBG consensus call was for an improvement to 53.0. The range of estimates was 51.0 to 55.0.

A variety of recent economic indicators have suggested that the overall economy lost momentum in the first half of the year.  The manufacturing sector specifically had been treading water before this loss of overall momentum.  Some recent manufacturing indicators (including this report) have shown some signs of breaking out of the doldrums, but the improvement has been erratic.  We are optimistic about a recovery in the manufacturing sector in the second half of the year, but the path to growth will not be free of bumps.

When forced with a choice between the chance of war and monetary policy, Barclays Michael Gavin tells investors that their focus should be on monetary policy. In a note today, he writes:

Here’s Why Norcraft Companies Is Worth Buying

An improving housing market and appealing company-specific factors are bound to support accelerated EBITDA growth and better place Norcraft Companies (NCFT) to experience healthy growth.

Advantages that it enjoys

The company has a competitive advantage with its exposure to the dealer channel. This channel accounted for about 90% of last year's revenues. Higher margins are normally seen with buyers in this channel and the relationships last long.

Norcraft Companies, based in Eagan, Minnesota, is a leading kitchen and bathroom cabinetry manufacturer which primarily focuses on the dealer channel that offers advantages versus selling direct to builders or through home centers.

Norcraft recorded an estimated revenue of $340 million in 2013, making it the fifth largest U.S. cabinet manufacturer and reflecting its exposure to the dealer channel (it's the third largest player, with 7% of the market), more than 90% of sales are in the semi-custom segment.

For the time being, switching costs are high. This leads to demand for significant investment. Since 2011, Norcraft's retention rate with "large" customers has been about 97%. Further, till June 2013, the company had been working with its top 50 customers for an average of 15 years.

The recovery of the housing sector could help company gain share and grow profitability, given its penetration in this channel and its operational excellence.

The benefits from recent investments should materialize in the future. Norcraft recently converted a Canadian components facility to a full access cabinet line producer under the Urban Effects brand. It extended its capacity utilization to approximately 60% including this plant.

The road forward

NCFT's highly motivated sales force is further penetrating existing accounts and developing new relationships. The greater operating leverage must drive accelerated top-line growth with these significant investments.

A wide range of product offerings allow for flexibility. Although semi-custom cabinets represented about 91% of Norcraft's sales, still company offers a broad range of products differentiated by both design and price point.

The frame category supports four brands. Norcraft supports two brands in the full access category.

Moving ahead, about two-thirds of its business comprises of demand for repair and remodel with the remainder from new construction. The company offers more than 600,000 door and finish combinations for use in kitchens and bathrooms.

Further, the demand for repair and remodel projects is likely to accelerate with an increased stability around home prices, especially larger ones. The deferred repair and remodel projects should unfold, contributing to additional demand for building products as home prices stabilize.

Norcraft succeeded in improving its sales mix toward higher price products in the downturn as well, which contributed to its margin expansion. While the company isn't focusing on the builder and home center channels today but, supporting a broad product range gives it the opportunity to pursue these options if it chooses to do so mentioned.

Investors are generally optimistic about the housing that has bottomed, and unfolding of the early stages of recovery.

Free cash generation of more than $21 million is forecasted in 2014 by analysts who further anticipate more significant levels in the future. The leverage would most probably decline meaningfully over the next several years, bringing Norcraft in line with its peer average.

Conclusion

The shares of product companies have been quite robust while the slowdown in construction has negatively impacted the home-building stocks that reflects the diversified nature of their businesses and the better free cash flow dynamics. In total, Norcraft is well positioned to witness share gains and increase profitability with the recovery of the housing sector.

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Lattice Semiconductor

Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) is doing well. It has seen improvements in its operations. The company excels in the manufacture of programmable chips which are sold in various segments such as mobile, communications, automotives, industrial etc. The reason for the company's strong performance has been its key customers such as China Mobile and Cisco. On the back of a strong client base, Lattice has seen a good 40% growth in its stock price. Let us take a look at its business.

Strong performance

Lattice is seeing solid tailwinds as the company's revenue came in 23% higher on a year-over-year basis, while earnings grew 20%. The company issued a strong outlook for the upcoming quarter. Lattice is expecting earnings of $0.04 per share. The company has posted a recovery in earnings as it saw a loss of $0.06 per share in the prior year period. Moreover, Lattice is seeing improvements in the profit margins as a result of cost saving initiatives.

The road ahead

Lattice is also making moves to strengthen its production line. Under this, the company is focused on making its production process more efficient and is transitioning to a 90-nanometer process from the 130-nanometer process. This robust move by the company is expected to hurt Lattice's profit margins slightly in the short term, while in the long term, the company will see higher gains arising from this initiative.

Lattice's growth has been quite impressive as the company has methodically pursued its objectives. It saw 300% year-over-year growth in consumer revenue in the previous quarter, which was a result of design wins at two key mobile OEMs. Going forward, the company is looking to generate more business from these mobile customers.

Despite weakness, Lattice is slowly gaining traction as the company's communication business is seeing a boost. Despite a sluggish market for Lattice in Europe, the company is seeing bright opportunities with the LTE roll out. On the other hand, management of the company sees increase in demand after a seasonal weakness.

China Mobile is also making solid moves to enhance the LTE market in China and is spending about $13.5 billion. Also, China Mobile is expanding to 340 more cities by the end of 2014. This can be a great opportunity for Lattice as the demand for its chips is expected to be strong throughout the year.

Also, Lattice looks geared up to support 4G networks with the deployment of small cell wireless base stations. According to Lazard Capital Markets, Lattice's exposure at Cisco should enable the company to profit from small cell deployment.

New products to drive growth

Lattice's strategy of launching new products in the market is a good indicator for the company as the new products are seeing good traction. Lattice is seeing continued contribution to the revenue from its new products' sales. Lattice is focusing on delivering cost-effective and efficient solutions to customers and this is probably a reason why it is seeing impressive adoption of its new products, leading to robust revenue growth.

Conclusion

Looking at the valuation ratios, Lattice appears expensive, but it has solid outlook for the future and moreover, its products are seeing traction in the market. Also, the projected five-year growth rate of the company looks promising. So, although Lattice looks expensive, investors should not mind paying a heavy premium for a high-flyer like Lattice.

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Sunday, May 25, 2014

Swallow These Esophageal Cancer Stocks: MACK, COV, NEO & CLRX

One way or the other, Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: MACK), Covidien plc (NYSE: COV), NeoGenomics, Inc (NASDAQ: NEO) and CollabRx Inc (NASDAQ: CLRX) are targeting Barrett's Esophagus or esophageal cancer (the former often leads to the latter) – a form of cancer that may not be on the top of your list of cancers but is nevertheless on the rise. Approximately 3 million Americans suffer from Barrett's Esophagus,  a condition that develops as a result of chronic injury from gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) where the normal esophageal lining is replaced with abnormal cells (known as Barrett's tissue), putting patients at greater risk of developing cancer of the esophagus. And although less than 1% of these patients develop cancer each year, esophageal carcinoma is frequently not detected until later stages, at which point therapy options are limited, extremely invasive, and often ineffective. This means that early detection is important along with regular surveillance is recommended. 

Otherwise, other risk factors for esophageal cancer include smoking tobacco and heavy use of alcohol while people who are infected with human papilloma virus are also at increased risk. Most people who develop esophageal cancer will be in their 50's to 70's, they will more likely be men than women and its more common among African-Americans than among Caucasians. The American Cancer Society estimates that more than 18,000 Americans will be diagnosed with esophageal cancer in 2014 and more than 15,000 people will die from the disease.

As for investing in esophageal cancer treatments or tests to detect it, small cap Merrimack Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company discovering, developing and preparing to commercialize innovative medicines paired with companion diagnostics for the treatment of cancer. In August 2013, Merrimack Pharmaceuticals announced that the FDA's Office of Orphan Products Development had granted two separate orphan drug designations for its bispecific antibody, MM-111, for the treatment of esophageal cancer and for the treatment of gastric as well as gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) cancers. The Vice President of Clinical Investigations commented in the announcement that:

"We are pleased that the FDA has granted orphan status designation for the development of MM-111 in these two indications. Patients with HER2-expressing gastric and esophageal cancers have limited treatment options. We are excited to move forward with the development of MM-111 and hope to positively impact the lives of these patients by addressing an unmet medical need."

MM-111 is being tested in a Phase 2 study in advanced gastric, esophageal and gastroesophageal junction cancers with the latest information about the trial available here.  

Meanwhile, Ireland based large cap Covidien plc develops, manufactures and sells a diverse range of industry-leading medical device and supply products. Back in March, Covidien plc announced that its technology is effective at treating Barrett's Esophagus, according to a clinical study published in The Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). The so-called SURF Trial (SUrveillance vs. RadioFrequency ablation) was a multi-center, randomized, investigator-sponsored clinical trial that compared the Covidien Barrx™ RF Ablation System with endoscopic surveillance in patients with Barrett's Esophagus and a confirmed diagnosis of low-grade dysplasia. According to the lead investigator:

"In patients with Barrett's esophagus containing confirmed low-grade dysplasia, endoscopic ablation significantly reduced disease progression to high-grade dysplasia and esophageal cancer as compared to surveillance alone. The difference in the disease progression outcome between the two groups was so large, in fact, that the data safety monitoring board overseeing the trial recommended early stoppage of the trial and patients in the control group were then offered endoscopic ablation."

In addition and near the end of 2012, small cap NeoGenomics, a leading provider of cancer-focused genetic testing services, announced that it had validated and launched a laboratory developed Fluorescent in Situ Hybridization assay for the surveillance of patients with Barrett's Esophagus. The test from NeoGenomics is highly sensitive for the detection of the presence of esophageal cancer or high grade dysplasia indicative of precancerous changes. Moreover, current data suggests that an esophageal "brushing" may be more effective than a traditional tissue biopsy because it allows for the collection of cells from a larger area of the esophagus for testing and they are also generally easier and less costly to obtain than tissue biopsies. Hence, NeoGenomics' NeoSITE™ Barrett's Esophagus FISH test was designed specifically to be performed on brushing samples and can be used as an objective and easier means to aid in routine surveillance of BE patients.

Finally, small cap CollabRx Inc is more of an indirect play on specific cancers like esophageal cancer because it uses information technology to aggregate and contextualize the world's knowledge on genomics-based medicine with insights from the nation's top cancer experts starting with the area of greatest need: advanced cancers in patients who have effectively exhausted the standard of care. Yesterday, CollabRx Inc announced the publication of an abstract in the 2014 ASCO Annual Meeting Proceedings, entitled:

Genetic alterations in esophageal cancers: Detection by next-generation sequencing and potential for therapeutic targets

The abstract summarizes the results of a clinical study conducted by physicians and clinical researchers at CollabRx Inc, the University of Chicago and the University of Wisconsin. The goal of the study was to pair tumor genetic alterations derived from an established next generation sequencing (NGS) platform with actionable information that can be used to inform individual patient treatment planning. CollabRx will be discussing the abstract and GVA Service at the 2014 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting taking place May 30-June 3, 2014 in Chicago.

Hess stations to be renamed, but trucks roll on

FINDLAY, Ohio — The Hess name will disappear from gas station signs after a $2.87 billion deal to sell the chain to Marathon Petroleum's Speedway, but the holidays will still see the popular Hess toy truck.

The deal gives Marathon Petroleum the retail operations of Hess, the largest chain of company-operated gas stations and convenience stores on the East Coast. The Hess stations will all be rebranded as Speedway over three years, the company said.

It also keeps the Hess toy truck on holiday wish lists — as they will still be sold at Hess retail stores and online this year. Starting in 2015, Hess plans to sell the toy trucks online.

Hess said this year will mark the 50th anniversary of the toy trucks, an institution on the East Coast, where TV commercials promoting each year's entry are commonly seen.

The deal, which is being orchestrated under subsidiary Speedway, will expand Marathon Petroleum's retail operations from nine states to 23 states along the coast and in the Southeast.

Hess has been reshaping itself as a pure production and exploration company since coming under pressure from hedge fund Elliott Capital Management in 2013. It said last year it would seek a buyer for its retail operations.

Hess will use proceeds from the sale for additional stock buybacks. The company boosted its existing share repurchase authorization to $6.5 billion from $4 billion.

The deal announced Thursday consists of $2.37 billion in cash, an estimated $230 million of working capital and $274 million of capital leases. The transaction includes all of Hess' retail locations, transport operations and shipper history on various pipelines, including approximately 40,000 barrels per day on Colonial Pipeline that runs from New York to Houston.

"With this significant geographic expansion, we will be able to further leverage our integrated refining and transportation logistics operations, providing an outlet for an incremental 200,000 (barrels per day) of assured sales from ou! r refining system," Marathon Petroleum CEO Gary Heminger said.

Marathon Petroleum is itself part of an earlier split in the energy sector in 2012, when Marathon Oil broke off its refining division so that it could focus on exploration and production.

The acquisition is expected to close late in the third quarter.