3 Huge Stocks to Trade (or Not)

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Put down the 10-K filings and the stock screeners. It's time to take a break from the traditional methods of generating investment ideas. Instead, let the crowd do it for you.

>>5 Short-Squeeze Stocks Ready to Pop

From hedge funds to individual investors, scores of market participants are turning to social media to figure out which stocks are worth watching. It's a concept that's known as "crowdsourcing," and it uses the masses to identify emerging trends in the market.

Crowdsourcing has long been a popular tool for the advertising industry, but it also makes a lot of sense as an investment tool. After all, the market is completely driven by the supply and demand, so it can be valuable to see what names are trending among the crowd.

While some fund managers are already trying to leverage social media resources like Twitter to find algorithmic trading opportunities, for most investors, crowdsourcing works best as a starting point for investors who want a starting point in their analysis. Today, we'll leverage the power of the crowd to take a look at some of the most active stocks on the market today.

>>5 Blue-Chip Stocks to Trade Gains

These "most active" names are the most heavily-traded names on the market -- and often, uber-active names have some sort of a technical or fundamental catalyst driving investors' attention on shares. And when there's a big catalyst, there's often a trading opportunity.

Without further ado, here's a look at today's stocks.

Groupon

Nearest Resistance: $7

Nearest Support: $6

Catalyst: Technical Setup

Daily deal site Groupon (GRPN) is seeing a high-volume pullback this afternoon, down 2.5% after a big technical move in the last week. Groupon spent the start of 2014 in an unmistakable downtrend, but that slumping stock price changed at the start of June, when shares broke out above the trend line resistance level that's been haranguing shares this entire time. With the downtrend broken, more upside looks likely for GRPN.

Groupon is seeing added volume this week thanks to some fundamental news that prompted a breakout above shares' 50-day moving average, a level that's acted like resistance over the course of the downtrend. Now it's support. A recent uptrend in momentum, measured by 14-day RSI, adds some extra confidence to the buy signal in this name. Put a stop under $6 if you decide to jump in here.

Bristol-Myers Squibb

Nearest Resistance: $50

Nearest Support: $47

Catalyst: Drug Results

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) is up nearly 3% on high volume as I write this afternoon, up following news that the firm was stopping its study on skin cancer drug nivolumab after the study showed clear positive results. The trial brings BMY one step closer to commercializing its melanoma treatment, and optimistic investors are piling into shares today.

Technically speaking, it's a little early to celebrate in shares of BMY. This stock has been making lower highs since March, and today's move higher is testing a key resistance level that's swatted shares down twice. If BMY can break out above $50 resistance, then it's a buy. Otherwise, sellers remain in control.

General Mills

Nearest Resistance: $54

Nearest Support: $51

Catalyst: Q4 Earnings

Cereal maker General Mills (GIS) is getting sold off 3.5% this afternoon, dragged lower by fourth-quarter earnings numbers that fell short of expectations. GIS announced profits of 67 cents for the quarter, but Wall Street was expecting a 72-cent payday. That miss is also triggering a big technical sell signal in GIS this afternoon.

GIS spent the last two months forming a textbook head and shoulders top setup, a pattern that triggered on a move through $54. We saw that move happen with yesterday's close, and it got confirmed with today's material breakdown. While the downside target from the head and shoulders is modest, a lack of meaningful support below means that shares could have a lot further to fall. Buyer beware.

To see these stocks in action, check out the at Most-Active Stocks portfolio on Stockpickr.



-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.

RELATED LINKS:

>>Buy These 5 Rocket Stocks to Beat the Market

>>4 Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Poised to Pop in June

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in the names mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to

TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji

Why your home is not a good investment

I've come to believe that for millions of Americans, a house is a large liability masquerading as a safe asset.

Not just because of the recent housing crash, although what an eye-opener that was.

But because after watching real estate implode last decade, the average American still believes their home will make a great long-term investment. The best long-term investment, even.

As my colleague David Hanson wrote last week, a recent Gallup poll shows that Americans now believe housing is the best long-term investment, beating out stocks, bonds, and gold.

They might be right, only because the average stock investor does so poorly that a home may indeed be their best investment. But housing has historically been a terrible bet for people who think it will return more than inflation. To show you what I mean, I have to tell you about my visit to Yale economist Robert Shiller's office a year ago.

Shiller -- who won the Nobel Prize last year -- is regarded as the world's foremost housing expert. He has married historical data with deep insight into human psychology to offer some of the best housing analysis anyone's ever produced.

Not only is Shiller brilliant, but he's one of the nicest guys I've ever met, easy to talk to and puts things in clear, easy-to-understand language. As we sat in his office eating donuts and drinking coffee, I asked him, in the broadest terms I could, what homeowners should expect out of their homes in the long run.

"The housing boom in the early 2000s was driven by a sense that housing is a wonderful investment. It was not informed by good history," he said. Most people now agree on that much.

"If you look at the history of the housing market, it hasn't been a good provider of capital gains. It is a provider of housing services," he explained.

By that, he means a home gives you a place to live, a place to sleep, a place to store your stuff.

But that's it. Americans believed -- and still believe -- that the value of their home! will increase above the rate of inflation.

And that, Shiller says, is wrong.

"Capital gains have not even been positive. From 1890 to 1990, real inflation-corrected home prices were virtually unchanged."

Shiller -- a pioneer of behavioral finance and one of the calmest, levelheaded economists I know -- becomes animated at this point, almost irritated. Debunking the notion that housing is a great investment is one of his favorite topics.

Housing prices, he argues, could decline over long periods of time -- decades, even.

"Why is that?" he asks me. I really don't know.

"Well, I think you have to reflect on the fact that it's done it before. Home prices declined for the first half of the 20th century [adjusted for inflation]. Economists discussed that back then. Why are they going down? The conclusion was ... of course home prices go down. There's technical progress. They are a manufactured good. Back in 1900, homes were handmade, you know, craftsmen. But now, in 1950, we can get all kinds of power tools and prefab. And [construction workers] were just better in 1950 than we were in 1900. So of course prices will go down."

Shiller also mentions that certain homes go out of style over time, dragging down prices. "What kind of houses will they be building in 20 years?" he wonders aloud. "They may have lots of new amenities. They will be computerized or something in some way that we can't anticipate now. So people won't want these old homes."

His animation peaked with a line I'll never forget.

"To me, the idea that buying a home is such a great idea is just wrong. They may very well decline for the next 30 years in real terms."

Real home prices may decline for the next 30 years.

The best thing about Shiller, and what sets him apart from your typical pundit, is that he has data to back up every point he makes.

In the early 2000s, Shiller wanted to see what nationwide home prices looked like over the long term. He was shocked to learn that! no one h! ad ever actually put that data together.

He dug around in libraries, crunched the numbers, and came up with an index that measured nationwide home prices going back to the 1890s.

This was a first. "The strange thing is, nobody else had ever made a plot like that. I can tell you, no one had ever seen that picture," he told me, shaking his head in disbelief. "People plot all kinds of data. Why wouldn't someone have done that? I still haven't figured it out."

From 1890 -- just three decades after the Civil War -- through 2012, home prices adjusted for inflation literally went nowhere. Not a single dime of real growth. For comparison, the S&P 500 increased more than 2,000-fold during that period, adjusted for inflation. And from 1890 to through 1980, real home prices actually declined by about 10%.

The reason Shiller warns that home prices could fall going forward is the simple observation that, heck, they've done it in the past. It's what history tells us to expect out of our homes. The entire idea that home prices increase in real terms over time is a figment of the 2000s housing bubble.

It's important to reiterate what a home does do: It provides a place to live. A place to raise your kids. A place to spend the holidays with your family. A place to barbecue with your neighbors. Even a place to rent out. That has tremendous value, of course. Shiller owns a home. He'd buy another if he needed one. "Basically, if I were in the market right now because I wanted a house, I would buy a house," he said.

The problem is that Americans expect more out of their homes than just a place to live. In 2010 -- years after the housing bubble burst -- Shiller's surveys showed Americans still expected their home to appreciate by more than 6% a year over the following decade. If history is any guide, that's probably about twice as fast as they'll actually appreciate by. Despite the housing crash, people still expect stock-like returns out of their homes.

Since a home is most Amer! icans' la! rgest asset, you can see how this becomes a problem. When you have inflated expectations about the largest asset you own, you walk down the path of financial disappointment. The value of American homes fell by nearly $7 trillion from 2007 to 2011. People who thought their homes would return enough to pay for retirement learned that Mr. Market carries a sledgehammer and takes no prisoners.

Everyone should live in a home they can afford and provides the lifestyle they desire. But assuming it's a superior long-term investment, one to rival stocks, is dangerous. There's just no evidence backing it up.

I think people run into two problems when thinking about the value of their house.

A home is typically the asset people hold the longest. They sell stocks after a few months, but keep a home for years, or decades. When you own something for that long, the returns you think you earned can be overwhelmingly due to inflation. The Consumer Price Index has increased six-fold since 1970. If you bought a house for $30,000 in 1970 and it's worth $180,000 today, you've earned nothing after inflation. You think you've made a fortune, but you haven't gone anywhere. Add in property taxes, insurance and repairs, and you're down.

Yes, you got to live in the house. That's huge. But it doesn't make living free.

If you have a mortgage, you're paying interest. If you own outright, or have a lot of equity, there's an opportunity cost of having money tied up in an asset that barely keeps up with inflation when you could have had it in something else, like stocks.

Say you and I both have $250,000. I buy a house for $250,000 cash, and you rent a house across the street for $1,000 a month and put $250,000 in the S&P 500. After 20 years, I'll have a house worth $200,000 in real terms, and you'll have a portfolio of stocks worth $330,000 adjusted for inflation (assuming the market's average real rate of return, and a 2% inflation rate on my rent payments). The difference between those two amount! s is the ! opportunity cost of owning a house (and I didn't even include taxes, repairs, or insurance). In reality, it's hard to rent the same house for 20 years straight, and a lot of regions don't offer attractive rentals at all, so this probably isn't feasible. But it shows that the decision to own can be more about lifestyle and stability, not financial returns.

So, by all means, own a home. Just keep your expectations in check.

The Motley Fool is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

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After Zulily Stock Tanked 66%, Is Now the Time to Buy?

The difference between Zulily's potential and its performance is black and white. Its future should be bright if it can get beyond the problems holding back its stock. Image: Zulily.com

So much promise, so many opportunities, and so little to show for it. E-commerce retailer Zulily (NASDAQ: ZU  ) seems to have squandered most of its potential since going public. After hitting $73 a share soon after its IPO in November 2013, the stock of the mom-focused website has cratered and lost two-thirds of its value.

The problems that caused its latest loss of value may be temporary in nature, so with the stock 66% below its 52-week high, does this represent a good buy-in opportunity for investors?

What's the matter this time?
In the third quarter Zulily had a breakdown in communications, or as the e-tailer called them, "email deliverability challenges." During its conference call last month, management said a number of its subscribers didn't receive its emails for "a period of time" and that deliverability challenges are something it deals with "from time to time." An analyst at ITG Research followed up in December with a research note saying that new customer activations at Zulily had slowed in Q4. 

Because it typically takes several months for a new customer to make her first purchase, and the email issue likely slowed the company's customer activations, fourth quarter sales will likely be depressed.

ITG's somber outlook helped caused Zulily's stocks to tumble more than 7% in a day last week, building on the sustained collapse in share price investors have suffered through since February when shares peaked at $73.50 a stub.The 52-week low for the stock was $22.61, according to S&P Capital IQ data. That price was notched last week after the ITG report came out. Because "deliverability challenges" are a recurring problem for the e-commerce site, investors should count on volatility being a hallmark of this stock.

ZU data by YCharts

What happened before?
Zulily uses big data to create predictive modeling to determine who will buy what when. While that reliance upon information has led to surging sales -- they were up 72% in the third quarter and are 84% higher over the first nine months of 2014 -- it hasn't helped it to improve delivery times.

Slow shipping is plaguing the e-tailer. According to a Wall Street Journal report, the time it took Zulily to ship a product from its warehouses after receiving an order last year was an average of 11.5 days, much worse than rivals like Rue La La and Gilt, let alone industry leaders such as Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN  ) , which pioneered two-day shipping.

The reason is that Zulily doesn't stock most merchandise, but rather places orders with manufacturers once a sale is completed, which bulk ships it to Zulily's warehouses. According to StellaService data, the situation improves significantly for products Zulily does keep in stock, but fulfillment speed still lags its rivals.

Zulily -- 3.7 days Gilt -- 2.9 days Rue La La -- 2.3 days Hautelook -- 2.1 days Ideeli -- 1.4 days

Zulily is also knocked for relatively high shipping fees at a time when free delivery is becoming more popular.

What might the future hold?
Zulily views the email issues as not much of a concern. They happen from time to time, but it works through the problem with its email provider as they arise.

Delivery might be a stickier concern, but management believes its customers aren't necessarily looking for immediate gratification. They come to its site looking for unique daily deals, not quick shipments. And it is opening a new warehouse soon to help relieve pressure, while also investing in automation and a mobile app to help ameliorate the worst of it.

As Zulily is not about to stop operating on an "inventory-lite" model, however, shipping is still going to be a problem.

So is it a buy?
Speedy delivery seems to be the key to retail success these days. Amazon is among the companies experimenting with same-day delivery. Zulily's customers might not be as concerned as Amazon customers in getting their packages as soon as possible, but slow ship times will limit its ability to grow.

With email problems also likely to be recurring and competition only getting more intense (and shipping faster to boot), it seems hard to envision Zulily being a long-term success. I can't see buying in, even at this depressed price.

$19 trillion industry could destroy the Internet
One bleeding-edge technology is about to put the World-Wide-Web to bed. It could make early investors wildly rich. Experts are calling it the single largest business opportunity in the history of capitalism... The Economist is calling it "transformative"... But you'll probably just call it "how I made my millions." Don't be too late to the party— click here for 1 stock to own when the web goes dark.

11 jurors will weigh ex-Madoff employees' fate

NEW YORK – Deliberations in the trial of five former employees of Ponzi scheme mastermind Bernard Madoff are set to resume Friday after the defense and prosecution agreed to go forward without a juror whose illness stalled the case for three days.

U.S. District Court Judge Laura Taylor Swain approved the decision after the defense team resolved internal disagreement over whether to proceed with 11 jurors — one short of the full complement — or instead recall an alternate who was released before deliberations began Monday.

The jury had deliberated for roughly eight hours when a panel member reported a stomach ailment after lunchtime Tuesday. That forced a halt in the verdict process. She has not returned since, and on Thursday reported suffering what the judge characterized as an additional household accident.

Proceeding with 11 jurors is relatively rare. However, the federal rules of criminal procedure state that a jury may consist of fewer than 12 members if both sides stipulate approval in writing. Once deliberations have begun, the court may permit a jury of 11 to return a verdict without prosecution and defense approval provided that the court finds good cause to excuse one juror.

The agreement will enable the remaining jurors to resume deliberations at the point they stopped — amid reviewing transcripts of testimony by several witnesses, including one of the five former co-workers charged with knowingly aiding the scam.

If attorneys had opted to recall an alternate, jurors would have been legally required to disregard the their previous deliberations and re-start the decision-making process anew.

The illness and legal dilemma it spawned added an unexpected twist and delay to the five-month trial, already one of the longest white-collar crime proceedings in Manhattan federal court history.

Jurors heard testimony from more than 40 witnesses and saw dozens of exhibits in the case focused on charges the defendants knowingly conspired in and and profited ! from the fraud that stole an estimated $20 billion from thousands of investors worldwide.

The trial is the first Madoff-related criminal proceeding to be weighed by a jury. The disgraced financier pleaded guilty without standing trial after the scam imploded in December 2008. He's now serving a 150-year prison term.

The former co-workers face decades behind bars if they're convicted. They include former Madoff operations manager Daniel Bonventre; Annette Bongiorno, who managed investment accounts for her boss' most important customers; JoAnn Crupi, who had day-to-day oversight of the firm's largest bank account; and ex-Madoff computer programmers George Perez and Jerome O'Hara.

A market for anti-NSA technology emerges

(Editor's note: In this guest essay, Joe Franscella, senior director at tech PR firm Trainer Communications, advances the notion that a niche market for anti-NSA surveillance products and services may be taking shape.)

Since Edward Snowden blew the lid off the National Security Agency's surveillance activities, a number of vendors, organizations and individuals have announced plans designed to disrupt the agency's authority and cyber-surveillance operations.

John McAfee recently announced Decentral, a pocket-sized device to block NSA spying. Battelle Memorial Institute says it has leveraged photons to deliver unbreakable encryption. And several tech giants have banded together to form the Reform Government Surveillance coalition. Even Microsoft has called the NSA an Advanced Persistent Threat (APT).

Most recently, anti-spying Blackphones have entered the mix, and the President last week announced that he is going to take action to better protect individual privacy.

None of the established vendors and consultancies that work in tech security and privacy, however, have figured out how to convince customers that they have solutions for sale that will impede the agency.

All know the NSA would view attempts to compete in such a market as a direct challenge; a challenge the founders of Lavabit, Silent Circle email and Cryptoseal might describe as "insurmountable."

Revenue is the great motivator, though, and with analysts reporting that NSA-driven trust issues could cost U.S. enterprises up to $180 billion in losses, it's only a matter of time before companies start spending to defend themselves against NSA cyber-surveillance attempts.

Once this starts, the allure of money budgeted towards anti-spying strategies will cause vendors and consultants to jump into the anti-NSA technology game.

As this new market arises, defining and ownership rights will be up for grabs. Any tech security or privacy vendor that wants to compete will have to identify a suspicious "su! rveillance" incident taking place among its customer base.

Creative marketing and aggressive communications are key. We might soon see the introduction of a defining APT-like term such as Advanced Surveillance Threat (AST) or Advanced Surveillance Attack (ASA).

Vendors aiming to tap this emerging market will have to articulate discoveries, be visible at trade events and grab mindshare among top news sources and influential analysts.

3 Dead Money Stocks to Sell Now

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With 2014 just a couple of weeks away, you're going to be bombarded with a number of predictions about how the stock market is going to perform in the new year. I'm no great prognosticator, but I see only three possibilities:

1.)   It will go down.

2.)   It will stay flat.

3.)   It will go up.

Yes, I'm a jerk, but my point is that making a broader-market call involves way, way too many variables that you and I can't begin to intelligently piece together.

However, there are a couple easier calls to make in the individual stock world, like which stocks to sell. Specifically, there are a few businesses that, heading into 2014, are firing off enough warning flares that it's impossible not to notice.

The following is a look at three such companies whose roaches are too numerous and whose hurdles are too high to clear. Consider these stocks to be dead-money investments for the year, and invest your money elsewhere:

JCPenney (JCP)

Following months of disappointment on the sales front thanks to Ron Johnson's misguided leadership, JCPenney (JCP) actually has had a couple of pieces of promising news more recently. In October, JCP reported a 0.9% uptick in same-store sales — its first improvement in comps since December 2011 — and it's now estimating that November same-store sales have jumped an impressive 10%.

So, why not believe in the JCP comeback story?

Well, for one, JCP had some awfully, awfully easy numbers to go up against; in the year-ago period, JCPenney recorded a 32% flop in comps. Not to mention, the evil flipside to JCPenney's improved sales figures is that they're coming on the return of deep-discount sales. Thus, until we find out just how much in profits JCP is sacrificing, it's hard to get too jazzed.

Most troubling, however, is an SEC investigation into JCPenney's "liquidity, cash position, and debt and equity financing," as well as the company's September secondary offering that raised $810 million. While JCP denies it, several investors said CEO Mike Ullman told them a secondary offering would not be necessary. And while JCPenney does list roughly $2 billion in liquidity, the retailer could easily burn through that within a year.

Meanwhile, estimates for this fiscal year are for a loss of nearly $6 per share after JCP bled $3.50 last year. And while analysts see improvement in FY14, it's still expecting a $2.68 loss.

Even if you believe in what JCPenney is doing, it might bleed to death before it ever crosses the finish line. I wouldn't risk it.

RadioShack

In early 2012, I said to leave then-high-yielding RadioShack (RSH) alone. Its fat dividend wasn't a sign of financial health, but a byproduct of a share price that was hurtling toward the earth.

Between then and the end of the year, RadioShack had suspended its dividend and RSH stock had been hacked down by a staggering 70%.

This isn't an "I told you so." This is a warning.

You see, RSH stock has actually had a pretty good 2013, slightly beating the market with 26% gains. But I couldn't tell you why.

While its cash flow is headed in the right direction, (from $9.5 million a year ago to $112.6 million in the most recent quarter), its total cash and short-term investments have been headed the wrong way (from $572.6 million to $349.8 million). Meanwhile, RadioShack has been a perpetual loss machine, including red ink in the most recent quarter that exploded to $1.09 per share — compared to 33 cents per share in the year-ago period.

And more broadly speaking, RadioShack is dogged by a multipronged attack of better competition. As far as brick-and-mortar establishments go, you've got Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) offering up some more basic consumer tech, while larger electronics-specific companies like Best Buy (BBY) and hhGrgegg (HGG) offer just about everything RadioShack does (and more).

Then you've got Amazon (AMZN), which can topple RadioShack on price and also has the added benefit of not requiring a trip out to an actual store. (All of these issues have conspired to bring RSH to where it is today, and none of them are changing anytime soon.)

RadioShack might indeed have found a way to at least stabilize, but make no mistake — this isn't a growth business waiting to explode. At best, RadioShack will be dead money in 2014 as it bails out enough water to keep from drowning. At worst, it will continue to bleed out and punish shareholders clinging to the thoughts of some miracle turnaround.

Crumbs

I love cupcakes. More specifically, I love Crumbs Bake Shop (CRMB) cupcakes. I absolutely do.

That's why it pains me to say that CRMB stock is dead money.

Crumbs went public at $13.10 per share back in mid-2011, and it has been a bumpy road since then. On the positive side, sales improved 28% in 2011, still grew (albeit more slowly) 8% in 2012, and are expected to improve by 23% this year before slowing down to 16% growth next year.

The other side is much more painful. Earnings have been absolutely nonexistent. CRMB hasn't posted a positive quarter since going public, according to Standard & Poor's data, and accelerated losses from 66 cents in 2011 to $1.12 last year. This year's expected to be better, but not by much, with Wall Street anticipating a $1.05 deficit followed by a 75-cent loss in 2014.

Revenue
Year	1Q	2Q	3Q	4Q	FY
2013	12.08	12.35	11.42	–	–
2012	11.28	11.08	9.90	10.78	43.03
2011	9.72	10.29	8.88	10.99	39.88
2010	7.12	7.92	7.51	8.53	31.08
2009	–	–	–	–	–

Earnings Per Share
Year	1Q	2Q	3Q	4Q	FY
2013	-0.17	-0.23	-0.49	–	–
2012	-0.09	-0.14	-0.23	-0.49	-1.12
2011	-0.19	-0.05	-0.17	-0.45	-0.66
2010	0	0	-0.04	-0.06	-0.10
2009	–	–	–	–	-0.01

The total result is that CRMB stock now trades roughly 95% below its IPO price, and more importantly, at 75 cents per share. Why is that important? Because one of the Nasdaq's criteria for listing is that your share price must remain above $1, and a 30-day spell under that mark prompts a warning, after which the company has 90 days to climb back above it or face delisting, which can have a devastating effect on a stock. CRMB stock hasn't closed above $1 since Nov. 25.

Companies sometimes are given extensions, and sometimes they pop back to life — in fact, that happened back when I warned investors about Joe's Jeans (JOEZ) being on the delisting bubble. (Though JOEZ has quietly made its way back down near that $1 level.) But the point is that companies flirting with this line are doing so for a reason — and usually that's because of big, glaring weaknesses, such as huge, sustained losses.

Meanwhile, the truth of Crumbs' business is that cupcakes increasingly are looking like a fad, and that fad is standing right on the railroad tracks of America's amped-up focus on personal health.

CRMB stock is stuck in a perilous place. It's better off avoided.

Kyle Woodley is the Deputy Managing Editor of InvestorPlace.com. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Follow him on Twitter at @IPKyleWoodley.

Medicare open enrollment brings changes

The seven-week enrollment period for next year's Medicare prescription drug and managed-care plans begins Tuesday but seniors shouldn't simply renew their policies and assume the current coverage will stay the same. There's a likely payoff for those who pay close attention to the details.

Among the top 10 most popular drug policies, monthly premiums for 2014 are changing dramatically — up 55% for one AARP UnitedHealth plan and dropping 38% for another from Wellcare, according to a recent study by Avalere Health, a Washington, D.C., health research firm. The second-most popular plan, SilverScript Basic, is now off limits to new members until Medicare officials are satisfied that the company has resolved operational problems. The plan's nearly 2.9 million members can choose to stay.

About 22.7 million people, or 43% of Medicare's 52 million beneficiaries, are enrolled in these drug policies, also known as Part D plans.

OPEN ENROLLMENT: What you need to know about the open enrollment benefits process

The coverage gap, or "doughnut hole,"in Part D is growing smaller in 2014. The Affordable Care Act shrinks the gap every year until it's closed in 2020. Next year, drug coverage stops when the insurer and member together have spent $2,850 and resumes when the member has spent $4,550. This year, coverage stopped at $2,970 in spending and resumed at $4,750.

Discounts on drugs that seniors buy while in the gap have also improved, and next year's deductible is $310 instead of $325.

This open season also will have 142 fewer Medicare Advantage plans, the private plans that are an alternative to traditional Medicare fee-for-service coverage, the Avalere study found.They offer medical and often drug coverage from a network of participating providers. That's a 5.3% decrease, said Jennifer Rak, an Avalere senior manager.

HEALTH BENEFITS: Is a high-deductible health plan right for you?

Still, Medicare officials announced last month that they expect the enrol! lment in Medicare Advantage plans to continue to increase next year. Roughly one in four Medicare beneficiaries have MA coverage.They also said that one-third of these plans would be awarded four or more stars in 2014, although these ratings have not yet been issued for 2014. Plans can earn ratings of up to five stars, based on the quality of service and customer satisfaction.

Officials expect average Medicare Advantage monthly premiums to increase by $1.64 to $32.60 next year, while the average prescription drug plan premium will remain roughly the same, at about $31.

Robert Zirkelbach, a spokesman for America's Health Insurance Plans, a trade association, said Medicare Advantage continues to be popular despite the health law's cuts in federal payments to those plans because insurers "are doing everything they can to preserve benefits and minimize disruption for seniors in the program."

The Medicare open enrollment period, which ends Dec. 7, is for Medicare beneficiaries only. It's separate from enrollment in the Affordable Care Act's marketplace https://www.healthcare.gov/ health insurance, which began Oct. 1 and is geared mostly to people who have little or no insurance. Medicare Advantage and Medicare drug policies are not sold on the marketplace.

Because of the government shutdown, Medicare officials were not available for comment on details about the plans or enrollment. However, enrollment will start on time despite the shutdown.

Advocates for seniors noted that the government's online plan finder has carried a warning for the past several days that plan details may not be up to date. They recommend consumers should not decide on a plan until Medicare officials confirm that the plan finder provides accurate information. In addition to the website, assistance is also available by calling 800-MEDICARE (800-633-4227).

PLANS: Health savings vs. flexible spending account

Policies can change from year to year, so Medicare officials encourage seniors to ! review th! eir current coverage to make sure their drugs are still covered and at the best price. They should also check to see if they can get to the plan's preferred pharmacies, which offer lower prescription prices than others in the plan's network.

While the AARP MedicareRx Saver Plus premium will go up 55% next year, it's still below the average national premium, Sarah Bearce, a UnitedHealthcare spokeswoman said in an e-mail. The combination of federal reimbursement cuts, the health law's new tax on insurers and the automatic cuts triggered by sequestration "required us to make changes to our plans," she said, and added that this "financial pressure" is being felt across the health insurance industry.

But price increases, poor performance, and changes in covered drugs are often not enough to spur the vast majority of seniors to action. Only 13% changed policies in the four years since Congress added the drug benefit to Medicare in 2006, according to an analysis released last week by the Kaiser Family Foundation, a health policy organization. (Kaiser Health News is an editorially independent program of KFF.)

It's easier not to switch," said Richard Lees, a retired New York orthodontist who moved with his wife, Joan, to Silver Spring, Md., to live closer to their two daughters and their families. But when he learned his premium is going up next year, "I was very disappointed," he said.

He and his wife chose different plans because they take different drugs. (Unlike employer-sponsored insurance, Medicare drug plans do not require spouses to be on the same plan.)

"Each year, we have changed companies and improved our situation," he said.

When considering coverage, it's important to look beyond premiums to consider drug co-pays and other costs. During last year's fall enrollment period, Senior PharmAssist, o non-profit group in Durham, N.C., helped 387 seniors save an average of $676, said executive director Gina Upchurch.

Kaiser Health Newshttp://www.kaiserhealthnews! .org/ is ! an editorially independent program of the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, a non-profit, non-partisan health policy research and communication organization not affiliated with Kaiser Permanente.

Low Yields, Weak Returns Worry Institutional Investors

Global institutional investors are more confident they can handle risk, but key issues are still concerning, according to a report released Monday by Natixis Global Asset Management.

The survey of 500 senior decision makers in 19 countries found rising volatility, inflation and low yields are still major worries.

Three-quarters of respondents said severe market swings were challenging, and 64% said rising inflation was a big concern. However, the top challenge was lower yields and weak returns, cited by 90% of respondents.

In the United States, 85% of respondents said they were confident about their approach to risk management and 88% said traditional strategies for asset allocation and portfolio construction were no longer ideal.

“Institutional investors and some individuals are looking at the traditional 60/40 portfolio as incomplete,” David Giunta, president and CEO of Natixis, told AdvisorOne on Friday. “They’re adding things like alternatives, which aren’t correlated to the markets the way traditional asset classes are, to take down risk and target similar returns.”

Giunta said that “it’s comforting to see people focus on risk management.” Traditionally, “Most investors start out with what kind of return they wanted. We’re looking at what kind of risk you want,” he added. “More people are looking at the risk side and starting with that.”

Globally, two-thirds of respondents said they were confident in their risk management approach and 60% agreed traditional strategies were not as effective as they used to be. Consequently, 88% said it would be difficult to meet their total return objectives.

More than 70% of global institutional investors said strategic asset allocation was a challenge. When asked where they were putting assets, 58% said they planned to add global equity holdings in 2013, and 46% said they would add emerging-market stocks. Sixty percent said they planned to add to their alternatives holdings in the next 12 months.

Of investors who already own alternatives, 71% think they’ll perform better in 2013 than they did last year. Nearly 60% of investors said they would increase their real estate holdings over the next three years, followed by emerging-market debt (51%) and infrastructure (46%). Forty-four percent of respondents said they would increase their exposure to multiasset absolute return funds and global macro funds.

Institutional investors expressed greater confidence in themselves than they did for the majority of investors. Nearly 90% said they were confident they could meet their own financial obligations in the future, but 70% of global investors and 81% of investors in the United States said individual investors would not be able to save enough for retirement.

“Retirement readiness is an overall concern,” Giunta said. “Investors just aren’t going to have enough.” He noted that many investors still have a lot of their holdings in cash, indicating they are still concerned about volatility. “They’re staying on the sidelines,” he said. “Hopefully, they can begin to look at durable portfolio construction and participate in market upswings.”

-----

Check out 5 Huge Market Shifts, and How Investors Should Respond: Merrill on AdvisorOne.

Buyback favorites in finance-sector

Our portfolio -- based on stocks that have announced share buyback programs --  is beating the S&P 500 by more than 77% since its inception  in 2000.  

Two of our latest additions to this portfolio are in the financial sector -- Discover Financial Services (DFS), where anagement has reduced shares outstanding by 6.2% in the last 12 months, and State Street Corp. (STT), whose management has reduced shares outstanding by 6.4% over the last year.

Discover Financial is a direct banking and payment services company with one of the most recognized brands in U.S. financial services. We last bought the stock in October 2012 and sold it two months later for a small gain.

Begun in 1986, the company has become one of the largest card issuers in the U.S., operating the Discover card, loans (home, private student and personal), online savings accounts, certificates of deposit and money market accounts through its direct banking business.

Its payment businesses consist of Discover Network, PULSE (a leading ATM/debit network) and Diners Club International, a global payments network in more than 185 countries and territories.

Discover has a market cap of $22.5 billion, a P/E ratio of 10.3, below the S&P 500 P/E ratio of 17.7. Shares are up about 19% year to date, and analysts praise it for  revenue growth, solid stock price performance, growth in earnings per share, increase in net income and expanding profit margins.

Discover Financial is up more than 396% since the end of 2008, far outpacing the 97% gain in the S&P 500 over the same time.

Highlights from the recent quarter (comparisons are year over year): Net operating revenue grew 10%; net interest income grew 9%; card receivables grew 5%; private, student, and personal loans grew 10% as a whole; EPS grew 10% driven primarily by loan growth and share repurchases.

Financial holding company State Street provides investment servicing and investment management services to institutional investors worldwide. It has a market cap of $27.5 billion.

It hit a 52-week high Monday, and shares are up 28% year to date. The company has a P/E ratio of 13.9, below the S&P 500 P/E ratio of 17.7.

Analysts like its solid stock price performance, impressive record of earnings per share growth, increase in net income, attractive valuation levels and expanding profit margins.

State Street said its first-quarter net income on an operating basis rose 8% to $443 million, or 96 cents a share, from a year earlier.

Joseph Hooley, State Street's chief executive officer, has shifted his focus over the past two years away from acquisitions to returning capital to shareholders. He has raised the company's quarterly dividend by 44 % in the past 14 months and stepped up share repurchases.

Jim Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Next Week's Game Plan

Search Jim Cramer's "Mad Money" trading recommendations using our exclusive "Mad Money" Stock Screener.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- On a special edition of his "Mad Money" TV show Friday, Jim Cramer saluted our troops by hosting a live studio audience of men and women who are serving or have served in our military.

He said today's rally shows what happens when good news is treated as good news and not as a reason to fear the Federal Reserve.

Cramer also laid out his game plan for next week's trading. Monday, he'll be watching the Chinese industrial production numbers, along with the initial public offering of children's apparel Web site Zulily. On Tuesday, Cramer said he'll be watching the health care conference that may bring news from Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Next, on Wednesday, it's earnings from AFC Enterprises (AFCE), purveyors of Popeye's restaurants, along with network equipment maker Cisco (CSCO), which he said will be the most controversial conference call of the week as the tech sector remains in flux. Lots of retail earnings on Thursday, said Cramer, including Wal-Mart (WMT), Kohl's (KSS) and Nordstrom (JWN). Cramer said he expects a good holiday for all with higher employment and lower gasoline prices. Another plus on Thursday will be Viacom (VIAB), the media giant with a giant stock buyback that is actually making a difference. Finally, on Friday, Cramer said the U.S. industrial production numbers will be in the spotlight and he's looking for more good news that the domestic economy continues to stir. Executive Decision: Don Knauss In the "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down on location with Don Knauss, chairman and CEO of Clorox (CLX), as they celebrated the second annual Kingsford Invitational Grilling Competition, with all proceeds benefiting veterans. Knauss, himself a Marine Corps veteran, said that 15% of Clorox's hires in 2013 were veterans, and veterans make excellent employees for Clorox thanks to the fact they're mission-oriented, work well in teams and have a maturity and work ethic that's rivaled by none. Turning to the business of Clorox, Knauss said he's challenged every brand in the company to innovate around health and wellness, sustainability, affordability and multi-cultural areas, and every brand has responded in at least one area. Even a business as mature as bleach is seeing sales up 14% when it would typically rise only 1% to 2% in line with inflation.

Knauss said Medicare is no longer reimbursing hospitals for what it deems "preventable injuries," which now include infections. That means disinfectants like bleach are in increasing demand. Additionally, Clorox has been innovating its bleach offerings to make them more compact and easier to use, something consumers like.

Knauss also commented on its acquisition of Burt's Bees, a brand that's growing by double digits despite its premium price points. He said Burt's has expanded from five to over 25 countries and there's a lot of growth left.

Cramer said Clorox once again proves how American innovation is alive and well and he continues to recommend the stock. Game Changers

In a segment he called "Game Changers," Cramer dove into the bull market in video games being brought on by new game consoles, set to debut in just a few weeks. Cramer's been a longtime proponent of game retailer GameStop (GME), but tonight focused on the game publishers, mainly Activision (ATVI), Electronic Arts (EA) and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO). The video game business is hit-driven, Cramer told viewers, which means whoever has the hottest titles and franchises can expect to reap the most rewards. Activision recently beat its quarterly estimates but offered tepid guidance for the end of the year. Meanwhile, Electronic Arts has been turning itself around with moves into online and social gaming, but it also tempered expectations for the remainder of 2013. Then there's Take-Two Interactive, purveyors of the wildly successful Grand Theft Auto gaming franchise. Take-Two delivered phenomenal earnings, beating Wall Street expectations by 76 cents a share on a 340% year-over-year rise in revenue. The company also trades at just nine times earning with a 12% growth rate, making it the least expensive of the group. Lightning Round In the Lightning Round, Cramer was bullish on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Verizon (VZ), American Electric Power (AEP) and Sirius XM Radio (SIRI). Cramer was bearish on Banco Santander (SAN), Potash (POT) and LeapFrog (LF). Calling the Cadets In the "Calling the Cadets" segment, Cramer took a few questions from the cadets of the West Point investment club.

Cramer told the first cadet that if they don't have the time or inclination to manage their own portfolios, investing in mutual funds is still a great way to invest in one's future.

He hold the second cadet that the biggest mistake young people make is not taking enough risk in their investments. Older investors do the opposite -- they take on too much risk for their age and time horizon. No Huddle Offense

In his "No Huddle Offense" segment, Cramer reminded viewers that investing is not about being the fastest, it's about being the most thoughtful -- which is why he never recommends trading after-hours when companies first report. You must wait for the conference calls, he said, as Groupon (GRPN) and Priceline (PCLN) both demonstrated.

Shares of Priceline saw almost a 100-point swing from the lows after the company reported to the highs of today's trading. Cramer said that was caused by inexperienced traders who pulled the trigger based on the headlines, rather than waiting for the facts. Groupon as well as Walt Disney (DIS) saw their shares dip on their earnings release but also quickly reversed course as investors realized things were not as bad as everyone believed. To watch replays of Cramer's video segments, visit the Mad Money page on CNBC. To sign up for Jim Cramer's free Booyah! newsletter with all of his latest articles and videos please click here. -- Written by Scott Rutt in Washington, D.C. To email Scott about this article, click here: Scott Rutt Follow Scott on Twitter @ScottRutt or get updates on Facebook, ScottRuttDC

At the time of publication, Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS had a position in CSCO and JNJ. Jim Cramer, host of the CNBC television program "Mad Money," is a Markets Commentator for TheStreet.com, Inc., and CNBC, and a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. All opinions expressed by Mr. Cramer on "Mad Money" are his own and do not reflect the opinions of TheStreet.com or its affiliates, or CNBC, NBC Universal or their parent company or affiliates. Mr. Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers to be reliable, but neither TheStreet.com, nor CNBC, nor either of their affiliates and/or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Cramer's statements are based on his opinions at the time statements are made, and are subject to change without notice. No part of Mr. Cramer's compensation from CNBC or TheStreet.com is related to the specific opinions expressed by him on "Mad Money." None of the information contained in "Mad Money" constitutes a recommendation by Mr. Cramer, TheStreet.com or CNBC that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy mentioned on the program. Mr. Cramer's past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Neither Mr. Cramer, nor TheStreet.com, nor CNBC guarantees any specific outcome or profit, and you should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investments discussed on the program. The strategy or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value and you may get back less than you invested. Before acting on any information contained in the program, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser. Some of the stocks mentioned by Mr. Cramer on "Mad Money" are held in Mr. Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS Portfolio. When that is the case, appropriate disclosure is made on the program and in the "Mad Money" recap available on TheStreet.com. The Action Alerts PLUS Portfolio contains all of Mr. Cramer's personal investments in publicly-traded equity securities only, and does not include any mutual fund holdings or other institutionally managed assets, private equity investments, or his holdings in TheStreet.com, Inc. Since March 2005, the Action Alerts PLUS Portfolio has been held by a Trust, the realized profits from which have been pledged to charity. Mr. Cramer retains full investment discretion with respect to all securities contained in the Trust. Mr. Cramer is subject to certain trading restrictions, and must hold all securities in the Action Alerts PLUS Portfolio for at least one month, and is not permitted to buy or sell any security he has spoken about on television or on his radio program for five days following the broadcast.

3 Takeaways From Gartner’s Q3 Mobile Phone Sales Report

Technology research firm Gartner recently released its survey on third-quarter mobile phone and smartphone sales. For technology investors, these worldwide sales figures help to define the breadth of the market, aid in determining winners and losers, and see what trends are forming in the industry.

Gartner focuses on mobile phones sold during a particular period, allowing investors to detect trends more quickly, but the results can vary more than installed base figures that include preexisting users. Gartner's survey also goes beyond mere handset makers -- such as Samsung (NASDAQOTH: SSNLF  ) , Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) , Xiaomi, and Huawei -- by including operating system statistics from Google's (NASDAQ: GOOGL  ) (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) Android, Apple's iOS, and Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) Windows Phone. Here are three key takeaways from Gartner's report.

"Dumb" phones are dead -- long live smartphones
Perhaps the biggest takeaway in mobile is the rapid shift from regular -- or dumb -- phones to smartphones. Led by gains in developing markets, quarterly sales of smartphones jumped 20% year-over-year from about 250 million to 301 million units. However, the sales number barely budged for overall mobile phone shipments. The table below provides proper context:

  Q3 2013 Q4 2014

Year-Over-Year
Growth (%)

Smartphones Only	250,296.8	301,009.9	20.3%
Mobile Phones Total	455,706.5	455,784.7	0.02%
Smartphone Percentage of Total	54.9%	66.0%	---

Source: Gartner. Figures in thousands.

As you can see, when looking at the total mobile phone market, there's really no overall growth. However, what is actually happening is that customers in developing countries are purchasing smartphones rather than mobile phones, pushing the percentage of smartphones within the broad market to nearly 66%. This shows a significant opportunity for the various OS ecosystems and hardware manufacturers to transition to lower-cost smartphones in order to better serve those markets. China's Xiaomi went from a bit player to the fourth-largest smartphone maker worldwide by taking advantage of this trend.

It's tough to be the king
The leading manufacturer of mobile phones -- both smartphones and dumb phones -- is Samsung. However, this report builds upon earlier data painting a rough year for the Korean conglomerate, which was the only smartphone device maker that saw its shipments fall. While the full smartphone industry grew by the aforementioned 20%, Samsung's smartphone sales to end users dropped by nearly 9% year-over-year from 80.4 million to 73.2 million units.

For the mobile phone market overall, the drop was even more pronounced. The company saw a drop from 117.1 million to 94 million units -- a 20% decrease. This comes on the heels of a horrible third-quarter earnings report in which the company specifically blamed mobile phone weakness for a 60% plunge of operating profit from the same quarter last year.

Good news for Google and Apple -- OK for Microsoft but BlackBerry struggling
When it comes to smartphone operating systems, there's good news all around -- unless you're BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY  ) . Each of the top three operating systems increased units sold figures. Android increased its dominance during the quarter by growing its OS market share from 82% to 83.1% year-over-year.

Sales growth of 26% drove Apple's market share from 12.1% to 12.7%. That's impressive considering the newest iPhones -- the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus -- were only available for two weeks and in a limited number of countries during the reported quarter.

Although Microsoft's Windows Phone lost market share with sales growing at a slower place than the overall industry, the company did boost sales by 1.3% on a year-over-year basis. Not the upside Microsoft wants, but after the third-largest handset vendor in this survey, Huawei, abandons your product and says "nobody made any money in Windows Phone," it is good to demonstrate any growth in sales.

In addition, Microsoft benefits from BlackBerry's underperformance -- sales fell 45% year-over-year from 4.4 million to 2.4 million units. It's safe to say BlackBerry's newest operating system, BlackBerry 10, hasn't panned out as the savior the company needed. Instead, CEO John Chen has provided a breath of fresh air to the company amid talk of a refocus on the enterprise market. To be fair, its newest phone, the BlackBerry Passport, was released with less than a week to go in the third quarter and may need more time to be properly evaluated as a success or a flop.

1 stock that could be the "Income Play of a Lifetime"
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More cars earn top marks for safety

The 2015 Chrysler 200 was one of 33 models to earn a Top Safety Pick Plus award from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Despite stricter requirements and tough new crash tests more vehicles earned top marks from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.

This year, 71 vehicles earned the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety's Top Safety Pick awards compared to 39 last year.

That number includes vehicles winning the Institute's stringent Top Safety Pick Plus award, a feat managed by 33 vehicles this year, 11 more than last year. The Insurance Institute, a private group financed by auto insurers, puts vehicles through various crash tests to measure how well they protect occupants. These tests are different from those performed by the federal government's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

The Insurance Institute reports its crash test results on a four-step scale: Poor, Marginal, Acceptable and Good.

To qualify for the Top Safety Pick Award a vehicle must get at least an Acceptable rating in the Institute's challenging Small Overlap Crash test and a Good rating in the Institute's other tests. The other tests measure performance in front impacts, side impacts, rollover crashes and, for whiplash protection, in rear-end collisions.

The Small Overlap test was added to the regimen only in 2012. In it, the vehicle hits a barrier at 40 miles per hour with just one-quarter of its front bumper. The impact occurs on the left side, just in front of the driver's seat. This concentrates crash forces in a small area that's outside of the strong crash safety structures built into most new vehicles.

  Minivans fail IIHS crash test

Some vehicles had to be significantly re-engineered to perform well in the Small Overlap test. For instance, the Toyota Prius v had originally been one of the worst performers in this test. Toyota made some changes to the car, including lengthening side curtain airbags, and the 2015 model year Prius v performed well.

To earn a Top Safety Pick Plus award a vehicle must meet Top Safety Pick requirements but must also have an automatic braking system to help prevent or at least reduce impacts. That's a tougher standar! d than the Institute used last year when a vehicle only had to have a front collision warning system. Automatic braking was not required then.

Consumer Reports' Most Reliable Cars

"Although forward collision warning on its own is a valuable feature, we decided to tighten our criteria to encourage manufacturers to offer autobrake," Insurance Institute president Adrian Lund said in a statement. "Systems that don't require a driver response to avoid or mitigate a cash have the most potential for reducing crashes."

Asian brands dominate these awards. Toyota (TM), including its Lexus and Scion brands, had the most vehicles -- 12 in all -- winning at least a Top Safety Pick Award. Honda (HMC), including its Acura luxury brand, had the second most award winners with a total or 10.

Michael Bloomberg Returning to Lead Namesake Media Firm

Scott Roth, Invision/APFormer New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg NEW YORK -- Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg is returning to lead the financial data and news company he founded in 1981 but left to serve three terms in City Hall. The company, Bloomberg LP, said Wednesday that current CEO Daniel Doctoroff will step down at the end of the year. Doctoroff was a deputy mayor under Bloomberg. His departure makes way for Bloomberg to take back the helm of the company, of which he still owns more than 85 percent. The 72-year-old Bloomberg handed the reins of America's largest city to Bill de Blasio on Jan. 1. In a statement, Bloomberg said he never intended to return to his company after 12 years as mayor. But after reacquainting with its operations, he said, he couldn't resist its lure. "I have gotten very involved in the company again and that led to Dan coming to me recently to say he thought it would be best for him to turn the leadership of the company back to me," said Bloomberg, whose company has grown to employ more than 15,000 people in 73 countries and has made him a billionaire. Doctoroff joined Bloomberg LP in 2008 and became CEO in July 2011. Before that he served six years as Bloomberg's deputy mayor for economic development. He said he had no job lined up but in the short term would focus on his not-for-profit interests. Bloomberg, whose fortune Forbes estimates at $33.2 billion, credited Doctoroff with guiding the company through the financial crisis of 2008 and the deep recession that followed. Bloomberg LP is privately held and isn't obliged to divulge financial information, but it said Wednesday that its revenue grew to more than $9 billion this year from $5.4 billion in 2007. Its subscribers have grown to 321,000 from 273,000, it said, while it added more than 500 reporters and editors.

Week's Winners and Losers: Delivery Sizzles, Deals Fizzle

Paul Sakuma/AP There were plenty of winners and losers this week, with a few potential mergers coming undone and a maker of electronic learning toys getting schooled. Here's a rundown of the week's smartest moves and biggest blunders. Trex (TREX) -- Winner It's summer, and apparently a lot of homeowners decided to invest in sprucing up their outdoor living space. Trex posted strong quarterly results on Monday. The leading maker of weather-resistant wood-alternative decking saw its sales climb 23 percent, and adjusted pre-tax earnings soared 62 percent. There was some weakness earlier this earnings season out of other home improvement specialists, so it's a welcome surprise to see Trex holding up so well. The good news doesn't end there. Trex is eyeing accelerating growth, calling for revenue to climb a better than expected 27 percent in the current quarter. Mergers -- Loser In any week there seems to be a couple of acquisitions or mergers, but sometimes Cupid isn't feeling up to the arrow-slinging task. A couple of big potential buyouts came undone this week when Rupert Murdoch pulled his offer to buy out Time Warner (TWX), and Sprint (S) nixed plans to snap up T-Mobile (TMUS). The deals fell apart for different reasons. Murdoch just didn't have an interest in chasing Time Warner's stock higher in a hostile buyout bid. Sprint realized that regulators weren't going to be happy unless there were four major independent wireless carriers out there. Instant Gratification -- Winner Amazon.com (AMZN) announced on Wednesday that it was expanding its same-day delivery service to six more cities. Prime shoppers in Baltimore, Dallas, Indianapolis, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, DC, metro areas will now be able to place an order on the website by noon and pay $5.99 to have it delivered that same day. Naturally the selection is limited to items that Amazon stocks locally, but the one knock on Amazon about having to wait a day or two at least for shipments to arrive is starting to go away. Google (GOOG) and Barnes & Noble (BKS) teamed up to offer same-day book deliveries in Manhattan, West Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area. LeapFrog Enterprises (LF) -- Loser It's not easy selling tablets these days, but it's even harder to do that in the toddler education market. LeapFrog Enterprises saw its stock tumble after posting brutal quarterly results. Sales plunged 43 percent, as its LeapPad learning tablet and other electronic learning toys failed to gain traction. LeapFrog was a market darling in 2011 when it introduced the kid-friendly LeapPad Explorer tablet. It sold out ahead of the holiday season, sending parents scrambling to get the hot toy of the season. Three generations of the tablet later, we're seeing LeapFrog struggling to stand out in a world where traditional Android tablets have fallen sharply in price. Jack in the Box (JACK) -- Winner Flipping burgers may seem like a dangerous niche for investors, but let's not assume that all of the fast food chains are faring as poorly as market leader McDonald's (MCD) these days. Jack in the Box shares moved higher on Thursday after posting better than expected results. Jack in the Box also posted a healthy increase in comparable-restaurant sales, a metric that's been negative for McDonald's lately, and the company boosted its earnings guidance for the entire year. Let's not paint the burger joints with the same broad strokes. Some of them are paying off for hungry investors. More from Rick Aristotle Munarriz
•Your Landline May Be the Key to Big Dividend Checks •It's Not Just Disney Raking in Cool Cash From 'Frozen' •Why AT&T Will Never Be Great Again

Allergan: Waiting for a Deal

UBS analyst Marc Goodman explains why he raised Allergan (AGN) to Buy from Neutral following yesterday’s financial results and cost-cutting moves:

Reuters Allergan Chief Executive David Pyott

Investors have been waiting for 2 Allergan events: a restructuring and an accretive deal. Given the Friday PR for the conf call [yesterday], many investors were expecting a deal to be announced today and thus were disappointed from that perspective. But the cost cutting was solid and viewed positively (on top of the very strong qtr), and mgt couldn’t have been more confident that it can get a deal done in time. Now we wait for this deal. Can Allergan create close to as much ST value as Valeant (VRX) can with its cost cuts?

Before [yesterday] Valeant’s cost synergy targets (R&D) were already suspect because Valeant mgt indicated that it would cut $900M of a $1.1B budget and yet still pursue attractive late-stage pipeline projects. Allergan pointed to >$200M of post-approval commitments and >$300M of spend to accomplish those projects. Hence, we had already assumed that Valeant would need to change either its synergies or sacrifice projects (we assume cut projects). This is not only what it did with both Medicis and B&L but eliminating R&D is part of the b-model. With [yesterday's] cuts Allergan's cost base is ~$3.5B and Valeant's planned $2.7B of synergies would account for >75% of costs. Cost synergies are critical to determine deal accretion for Valeant, and so it will be interesting to see what Valeant will do with its aggressive targets.

Shares of Allergan are little changed at $171.22 at 2:10 p.m. today, while Valeant has dropped 1.3% to $123.97.

Milwaukee 'Naughtiest' City in U.S., Report Says

Don Klumpp/AlamyA statue of Fonzie from the hit TV series "Happy Days" as scene on the Milwaukee Riverwalk. Milwaukee can expect a lump of coal in its Christmas stocking this year. The Wisconsin city tops the country's 10 Naughtiest Cities list, according to a RealtyTrac report. But, Texas can expect lots of goodies in its Christmas stocking, because the state boasts 6 of the top 10 Nicest Cities, according to the real estate data company. The report looked at number of sex offenders, unemployment, foreclosures, crime and elementary school scores to determine the naughty and nice cities in the U.S. with populations more than 100,000 and for which there was sufficient data available. To make it on the naughty list a city needed to be worse off than the all-county average for each of the five factors, while to make it on the nice list a city needed to be better off. Naughty List The report found 20 "naughty" cities where unemployment, sex offenders, and foreclosure inventory were above the national averages along with school ratings below the national average and a crime rating of C or below. Of the top 10 "naughtiest," three are in California. Milwaukee Detroit Stockton, California Philadelphia Fresno, California Sacramento, California Rockford, Illinois Springfield, Massachusetts Hartford, Connecticut Paterson, New Jersey Nice List

Love at First Sight - or at First Credit Check? (Spoiler: It's Both)

Karen Roach/Shutterstock When singles are looking for love, they typically don't start by checking out a potential mate's credit score. But maybe they should. A recent survey of 1,010 married people by Experian (EXPGY) Consumer Services division found that 95 percent of those polled rate financial responsibility as an important attribute in a spouse. Compare that to physical attractiveness -- often the first criterion we use to judge potential mates -- which was deemed an important trait for compatibility by just 86 percent. (Personal compatibility led the list at 98 percent.) Financial communication can be an important barometer of how successful a relationship will be, although women place more of a premium on it than men. Among those surveyed, 73 percent of women and 60 percent of men said that being open about personal finances and credit makes a person more attractive as a spouse. On the flip side, 59 percent of women and 44 percent of men say that a partner who avoids talking about those things is less attractive as a spouse. What's Your Number? "Financial debt and a person's credit score are so important to disclose before you tie the proverbial knot," says Les Parrott, co-author with his wife, Leslie, of "Making Happy" and "The Good Fight." "We can tell you about lots of disastrous money surprises when a person isn't up front about this." It's important to discuss all aspects of your individual and shared financial situations regularly with your significant other, but because your credit score will impact your ability to make major purchases like a home or a car, it's especially important to determine whether a low credit score tied to one or both of you may affect your long-term goals, says Suzanna de Baca, vice president of wealth strategies at Ameriprise Financial (AMP). "An important step toward having a successful relationship is being willing to share your feelings about money with your partner. This includes being honest about past and present items, like your credit score," says Terry Siman, certified financial planner and managing director at United Capital in North Wales, Pennsylvania. "When money conversations are put on the back burner, issues start to develop." Talk to Each Other Most adults come into relationships with financial habits and beliefs already in place -- like biases about debt, spending and saving for the future. "Both partners must discover what matters most to themselves and to their partner financially," Siman says. Without those conversations and clear communication, money conflicts can grow and fester.

Women said the maximum they would spend without consulting a spouse was $396; for men, the maximum was $1,231.

Spending is one area where tensions can quickly build up. The Experian survey showed a big gap between what men and women feel is an appropriate amount to spend without first discussing it. Women said the maximum they would spend without consulting a spouse was $396; for men, the maximum was $1,231. Parrott suggests that jointly agreeing on a limit for spending that can happen without input from the other spouse creates a sense of shared responsibility and mutual respect. De Baca agrees that it's a good practice to discuss large purchases that will impact day-to-day spending or the ability to reach long-term financial goals, but points out that what's considered a large purchase may vary from family to family. Of course, that limit will change as a couple's situation changes. Siman suggests considering what amount you can safely spend on an impulsive purchase and what amount should force you to think about that type of expenditure. "Remember, relationships need compromise. Both partners must discover what matters most to themselves and to their partner financially. When there is clarity over what each person's priorities and limits are, goals can be achieved together." More from Michele Lerner
•Don't Lose Your Share of $48 Billion in Credit Card Rewards •Is Your Credit Card Debt Average? And What's Average? •You Need a Savings Account - and You Deserve a Better One